Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?
Precio comprobado el
Historial de probabilidades
Probabilidades implícitas del mercado · Todo el historial registradoArrastra para mover · pellizca o usa ⌘/Ctrl+desplazamiento para ampliar
Los periodos sombreados no tienen una comprobación horaria de precios satisfactoria.
Basado en los precios de los posibles resultados de este mercado, expresados como probabilidades.
Reglas de resolución
This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data. Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc. If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies. This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
La misma pregunta en otras plataformas
2 plataformas la tienen- Polymarketeste mercado
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?
This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data. Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc. If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies. This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
576 titulares · 30 comentarios · leído 29 sept, 23:23 UTC
- PredictFunAbrir →
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?
This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data. Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc. If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies. This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
leído 29 sept, 22:41 UTC
Otras variantes de este evento
Una variante leída sola engaña; las demás están al lado.| Mercado | Plataforma | Precio | Estado |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will 2026 be the fifth-hottest year on record? | Polymarket | 100 % No | Abierto |
| Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record? | Polymarket | 70 % No | Abierto |
| Will 2026 be the third-hottest year on record? | Polymarket | 100 % No | Abierto |
| Will 2026 be the fourth-hottest year on record? | Polymarket | 100 % No | Abierto |
| Will 2026 rank as the sixth-hottest year on record or lower? | Polymarket | 100 % No | Abierto |
Actividad en la plataforma
Leído de la plataforma hace 26 minutosMejor compra 29 % · mejor venta 30 %
Mayores titulares
- 0xa5ef39c3d3e10d0b270233af41cac69796b12966107531561888318513792277163301281336651898062064090922046801464380647002668604
- russell11032023556429317429021692175226714041757812438092709195093999386854296551945919152
- flawfence23556429317429021692175226714041757812438092709195093999386854296551945919152
- SS12323556429317429021692175226714041757812438092709195093999386854296551945919152
- gopfan223556429317429021692175226714041757812438092709195093999386854296551945919152
Una instantánea de posiciones, no un historial de resultados.
Operaciones recientes
- BUY71 %50 US$hace 5 horas
- SELL70 %4,8 US$hace 12 horas
- BUY71 %4,9 US$hace 13 horas
- SELL69 %3,5 US$hace 20 horas
- BUY71 %14,5 US$hace 22 horas
- BUY71 %1,5 US$hace 22 horas
Debate en Predxy
Qué opinan los lectores de Predxy sobre este mercado. Todos pueden leer; los lectores con sesión iniciada pueden escribir. El hilo propio de la plataforma, si lo hay, está en el recuadro de abajo.Inicia sesión para participar en el debate.
Nadie ha dicho nada aquí todavía.
26 comentarios
Del hilo propio de Polymarket- polmar001 · ayer
nino who? he's not coming
- semantics · hace 3 días
El Niño is coming…
- xiaodouzi · hace 6 días
Temperature of where? It’s not hot at all this year in China. So if China is taken into consideration, it probably ranks 6th or lower.
- igliberg · hace 3 meses
i have heard that France is "burining"
- Famous-Fallacy · hace 3 meses
Hansen et all believe this year will be number 1.
- exmateriae · hace 3 meses
Berkeley now gives 2.5% to "1"
- Short-Tunic · hace 3 meses
6 or lower
- Short-Tunic · hace 3 meses
6
- exmateriae · hace 4 meses
Berkeley Earth March 2026 Temperature Update gives a 5% chance of 2026 being the warmest year on record. "1" is way too high.
- Academic-Forecast · hace 4 meses
It wasn't his simple question, but your revealing answer. Now I see it, thanks :D
- studmuffin6969 · hace 4 meses
in the US half the country does't believe in thermometers.
- Climatologist · hace 5 meses
Seems fairly priced
- Famous-Fallacy · hace 5 meses
Hansen et all predicting 2026 to be the hottest year with 0.06 degrees margin. [link removed]
- Pasun4ik · hace 7 meses
haaaa
- DYANA41800 · hace 7 meses
ArmageddonRewardsBilly Hi I tried very hard but unfortunately I couldn't contact you.
- Gennedy · hace 8 meses
I agree, it makes no sense at all.
- Eia · hace 9 meses
Why not delete your comment and trade on it yourself? 2026 is a long year, plenty of fish around. Some dont even research or read comments like the average shark comment above 😅 plz delete so we get better values 🙏
- Zwicky · hace 9 meses
Ok, now I understand. Thanks.
- TESTENAOMEXA · hace 9 meses
My friend, would you mind sharing where you collect the data about this?
- Roro22 · hace 9 meses
Becase this year and 2023 will differ only by a slight margin and are both below the warmest year 2024, so its a low probability 2026 lands inbetween them and becomes third. Cheers!
A las 29 sept, 23:49 UTC