Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?
Preț verificat la
Istoricul probabilităților
Probabilități implicite ale pieței · Tot istoricul înregistratTrage pentru a muta · ciupește sau ⌘/Ctrl+derulare pentru zoom
Perioadele umbrite nu au o verificare orară reușită a prețurilor.
Pe baza prețurilor rezultatelor posibile ale acestei piețe, exprimate ca probabilități.
Reguli de decizie
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory in Crimea between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Territory will be considered captured if any part of Crimea is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. The border around Crimea shaded in black on the ISW map will not qualify. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading under the following layers will qualify: - Claimed Ukrainian Counteroffensives Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Ukraine comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded under a qualifying layer on the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Celelalte variante ale acestui eveniment
O variantă citită singură induce în eroare; celelalte sunt alături.| Piață | Platformă | Preț | Stare |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2027? | Polymarket | 91 % No | Deschisă |
Activitatea platformei
Citit de la platformă acum 5 zileCel mai bun bid 4 % · cel mai bun ask 4 %
Cei mai mari deținători
- ZnotluvuiSamez67011482977279466154940850972585572311207926803952896052113224614375102184687
- GoriIIa72433435487515814631344400459815549868044734165082020724691045649454520502781
- NeH72433435487515814631344400459815549868044734165082020724691045649454520502781
- Joe-Biden67011482977279466154940850972585572311207926803952896052113224614375102184687
- ololololololololo72433435487515814631344400459815549868044734165082020724691045649454520502781
Un instantaneu al pozițiilor, nu un istoric de performanță.
Tranzacții recente
- SELL4 %0,6 USDacum 5 zile
- SELL96 %2 USDacum 5 zile
- BUY96 %5 USDacum 5 zile
- SELL96 %48,1 USDacum 5 zile
- SELL96 %96,2 USDacum 5 zile
- SELL96 %23 USDacum 6 zile
Discuție pe Predxy
Ce cred cititorii Predxy despre această piață. Toți pot citi; cititorii autentificați pot scrie. Discuția platformei, dacă există, este în caseta de mai jos.Autentifică-te ca să participi la discuție.
Nimeni nu a spus încă nimic aici.
534 de comentarii
Din discuția proprie a Polymarket- Bromley86 · acum 17 zile
They never had the codes, and couldn't have maintained them anyway. They'd have been better off stealing some of the tactical nukes, but Russia secured those.
- abdoohl · acum 22 de zile
Ukraine should just let it go. Just like the gave up their nukes, so dumb n naive giving away their nukes! Had they opted to keep their nukes it would have been way easier to keep Crimea too, just sayin
- abdoohl · luna trecută
Ukrainian astrologer prays to an icon of Zelensky —as well as to Bandera, Shukhevych, and other Nazis. She prays and performs bizarre rituals so that Ukraine gets more Patriot missiles and more "Flamingo" missiles to strike Russia.
- xew4w3345 · luna trecută
I live in Moscow and want it to be a part of Norway or Zwitzerland. What are we gonna do?
- abdoohl · luna trecută
prepare to lose your money!
- Shrill-Racer · luna trecută
They're not... learn english
- Bromley86 · luna trecută
This is what happens when 1 out of 11 gets through. And that was nearly a month ago.
- DrOetker · luna trecută
THEIR NOT GETTING THE KRIM. GIVE ME MY DOLLAR!!!!!!!!
- 12beduins · luna trecută
Ukraine so worthless, its really quite remarkable how worthless it is!
- 12beduins · luna trecută
WATCH: Military recruitment officers in Kropyvnytskyi detained a taxi driver while he was working, despite the fact that he had a pre-booked appointment. The passenger was thrown out onto the street.
- pink.impala · luna trecută
Is women's mobilization needed? If women have equal rights with men, then they should also have equal duties – equal duties to defend Ukraine, – says Ukrainian Armed Forces sergeant and squad leader Yulia Kobrynovych.
- JimScott1 · luna trecută
Intercepting almost all missiles? Lying to yourself. Six people died. You and pink impala were not among the six people? Damn!
- JimScott1 · luna trecută
Ukraine launched hundreds of drones across Russia on Sunday, killing at least six people in one of Kyiv's largest aerial attacks of the war.
- abdoohl · luna trecută
Russian air defenses are already intercepting almost all Ukrainian Flamingo cruise missiles, reports the German publication Focus. 🦩 🦩 🦩
- JimScott1 · acum 2 luni
BREAKING: Ukraine has carried out a series of long-range strikes in Russia, hitting a military airfield and a rocket centre that supports the Russian Starlink-style satellite internet network. GREAT!!!
- AlexB20 · acum 2 luni
Why do u support Zelenskyy then? People in Crimea wants to be a part of Russia
- EnzoTheUser · acum 2 luni
i know, j3ws already have plans for it, including flooding my country with 3rd world tr@sh
- pink.impala · acum 2 luni
prepare to have your country turned to landlocked rump state!
- szivar.4 · acum 2 luni
Thy should create a market for June 2027 and Dec 2027
- EnzoTheUser · acum 2 luni
try to play Ukr music in russia, prison right away
La 30 sept., 01:39 UTC