Will Jerome Powell be TIME Person of the Year 2026?

No97 %
Yes3 %

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Lichiditate17,3 K USD
Spread4 %
Se decide31 dec. 2026peste 3 luni

Istoricul probabilităților

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Perioadele umbrite nu au o verificare orară reușită a prețurilor.

Istoricul probabilităților0%25%50%75%100%2 sept.9 sept.16 sept.23 sept.29 sept.Perioadele umbrite nu au o verificare orară reușită a prețurilor.Perioadele umbrite nu au o verificare orară reușită a prețurilor.Perioadele umbrite nu au o verificare orară reușită a prețurilor.Perioadele umbrite nu au o verificare orară reușită a prețurilor.Perioadele umbrite nu au o verificare orară reușită a prețurilor.Perioadele umbrite nu au o verificare orară reușită a prețurilor.Perioadele umbrite nu au o verificare orară reușită a prețurilor.Perioadele umbrite nu au o verificare orară reușită a prețurilor.Perioadele umbrite nu au o verificare orară reușită a prețurilor.Perioadele umbrite nu au o verificare orară reușită a prețurilor.Perioadele umbrite nu au o verificare orară reușită a prețurilor.Perioadele umbrite nu au o verificare orară reușită a prețurilor.Perioadele umbrite nu au o verificare orară reușită a prețurilor.Perioadele umbrite nu au o verificare orară reușită a prețurilor.Perioadele umbrite nu au o verificare orară reușită a prețurilor.Perioadele umbrite nu au o verificare orară reușită a prețurilor.Perioadele umbrite nu au o verificare orară reușită a prețurilor.Perioadele umbrite nu au o verificare orară reușită a prețurilor.Perioadele umbrite nu au o verificare orară reușită a prețurilor.Perioadele umbrite nu au o verificare orară reușită a prețurilor.Perioadele umbrite nu au o verificare orară reușită a prețurilor.Perioadele umbrite nu au o verificare orară reușită a prețurilor.Perioadele umbrite nu au o verificare orară reușită a prețurilor.Perioadele umbrite nu au o verificare orară reușită a prețurilor.Perioadele umbrite nu au o verificare orară reușită a prețurilor.Perioadele umbrite nu au o verificare orară reușită a prețurilor.Perioadele umbrite nu au o verificare orară reușită a prețurilor.

Pe baza prețurilor rezultatelor posibile ale acestei piețe, exprimate ca probabilități.

Reguli de decizie

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed person, group, entity, or thing is TIME Person of the Year for 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A listed option will be considered TIME Person of the Year if they/it are explicitly named as Person of the Year. Additionally, the following rules apply: If multiple people are explicitly named person of the year, both people will be considered TIME Person of the Year. If the TIME Person of the Year is a concept, group or thing, a person may still be considered Person of the Year if they are also explicitly named person of the year, or if they are directly associated with the concept, group or thing named as person of the Year and are pictured on any official TIME cover announcing the Person of the Year. For example, in 2025 when TIME Person of the Year was “Architects of AI” the option for Sam Altman would have resolved to “Yes” as he was associated with the concept and is pictured on the Cover. However, if Sam Altman were Person of the Year, and ChatGPT was shown on the cover, this would not qualify for ChatGPT because ChatGPT is not a person. If the TIME Person of the Year is a specific concept, group, entity, or thing (e.g. artificial intelligence), listed concepts or entities will be considered Person of the Year only if they are synonymous with the announced TIME Person of the Year. For example, if ChatGPT were Person of the Year, options for AI or LLMs would resolve to “No” because, while they are conceptually linked, they are not synonymous. If TIME uses language that does not refer to a specific, commonly-recognized, concept, group, entity, or thing (e.g. 2011’s “The Protester” or 2017’s “The Silence Breakers”), the TIME Person of the Year feature article will be used to determine the meaning of the language defining TIME Person of the Year. In such cases, listed concepts, groups, or things will be considered TIME Person of the Year if they can be reasonably understood as equivalent to the meaning of the language used to define TIME Person of the Year. For example, the option for “The Me Too Movement” would have resolved to “Yes” in 2017. If for any reason the TIME's Person of the Year is not announced by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the TIME magazine cover or covers announcing the 2026 TIME Person of the Year; however, the TIME Person of the Year Feature article may also be used.

Aceeași întrebare în altă parte

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Comparabile, nu identice. Kalshi resolves January 1, 2027, while Polymarket resolves December 31, 2026, and Polymarket additionally specifies TIME’s cover or feature article as the source and a June 30, 2027 no-announcement fallback. These are resolution-procedure differences, not differences in the event asked.
  • Time's Person of the Year for 2026: Will Jerome Powell be Time Person of the Year in 2026?

    If Jerome Powell is Time Person of the Year for 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. This will count towards the payout criterion: If multiple persons win, all persons that are listed are encompassed within the Payout Criterion. If, for example, the Person of the Year is “Joe Biden and Kamala Harris”, both “Joe Biden” and “Kamala Harris” strikes are encompassed within the Payout Criterion. The person must be explicitly named as the Person of the Year or pictured on the/a relevant cover if they are associated with the group/concept winning (the picture is only relevant for a natural human being winning). Some examples to illustrate this: “Jamal Khasogghi” would resolve to Yes in 2018, when “The Guardians” won, as he is also named and shown on a cover and falls within “The Guardians”. Similarly, “Bill Gates” would resolve to Yes in 2005. If Time uses language that does not specifically refer to a person or organization (examples being 2018’s “The Guardians of Truth” or 2017’s “The Silence Breakers”), Kalshi will resolve markets to the most simple meaning reasonable. In those cases, “Journalists” and “the Me Too movement” would resolve to Yes. This does NOT count towards the payout criterion: If there is no Person of the Year (and instead many variations thereof, e.g. Entertainer of the Year, Hero of the Year), that is not encompassed in the Payout Criterion. If “ChatGPT” was the Person of the Year, strikes of “AI” or “LLMs” would resolve to No, since even if they are conceptually linked, they are not synonymous (and thus are not explicitly named), and are not persons, so it would not matter if they were identified in the image. Or if “Sam Altman” was the Person of the Year, and the cover showed a person using ChatGPT on their computer, “ChatGPT” would not resolve to Yes because it is not a person. This market and these products have not been endorsed by TIME. Any references to TIME, or any associated marks are descriptive only and do not indicate an endorsement of this product or any affiliation between TIME and Kalshi.

    citit 29 sept., 22:16 UTC

  • Polymarketaceastă piață

    Will Jerome Powell be TIME Person of the Year 2026?

    This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed person, group, entity, or thing is TIME Person of the Year for 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A listed option will be considered TIME Person of the Year if they/it are explicitly named as Person of the Year. Additionally, the following rules apply: If multiple people are explicitly named person of the year, both people will be considered TIME Person of the Year. If the TIME Person of the Year is a concept, group or thing, a person may still be considered Person of the Year if they are also explicitly named person of the year, or if they are directly associated with the concept, group or thing named as person of the Year and are pictured on any official TIME cover announcing the Person of the Year. For example, in 2025 when TIME Person of the Year was “Architects of AI” the option for Sam Altman would have resolved to “Yes” as he was associated with the concept and is pictured on the Cover. However, if Sam Altman were Person of the Year, and ChatGPT was shown on the cover, this would not qualify for ChatGPT because ChatGPT is not a person. If the TIME Person of the Year is a specific concept, group, entity, or thing (e.g. artificial intelligence), listed concepts or entities will be considered Person of the Year only if they are synonymous with the announced TIME Person of the Year. For example, if ChatGPT were Person of the Year, options for AI or LLMs would resolve to “No” because, while they are conceptually linked, they are not synonymous. If TIME uses language that does not refer to a specific, commonly-recognized, concept, group, entity, or thing (e.g. 2011’s “The Protester” or 2017’s “The Silence Breakers”), the TIME Person of the Year feature article will be used to determine the meaning of the language defining TIME Person of the Year. In such cases, listed concepts, groups, or things will be considered TIME Person of the Year if they can be reasonably understood as equivalent to the meaning of the language used to define TIME Person of the Year. For example, the option for “The Me Too Movement” would have resolved to “Yes” in 2017. If for any reason the TIME's Person of the Year is not announced by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the TIME magazine cover or covers announcing the 2026 TIME Person of the Year; however, the TIME Person of the Year Feature article may also be used.

    14 deținători · 12 comentarii · citit 28 sept., 21:13 UTC

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11 comentarii

Comentariile aparțin evenimentului platformei, nu acestui rezultat. Toate variantele aceluiași eveniment împart acest fir.
  • enrico-vasaio · acum 8 zile

    bruh, he's Epstein's nephew

  • Little-Anguish · acum 8 zile

    so, according to the Copilot AI overview: "The most recent TIME Person of the Year is Punch, a 7‑month‑old Japanese macaque, selected early for 2026" soMeOnE PRopOSe?? ;?

  • TeeVee27 · acum 9 zile

    He is at over 40 percent over on the other one

  • RiseFromTheAshes · acum 11 zile

    Give me a market for Mark Carney!

  • TeeVee27 · acum 11 zile

    They added him on FanDuel after I asked.

  • YuliaKyiv · acum 12 zile

    Add Mark Carney please 🇨🇦

  • Probs · luna trecută

    Y'all know who owns the Times right? The 🧃 will never allow mamdani to be person of the year.

  • Donkoclock · acum 2 luni

    Zohran!!

  • MexicanGambler · acum 2 luni

    I don't think so, he's been "loosing" value on these weeks, and theres no justification yet

  • MrRobertHouse · acum 4 luni

    Elon Musk will be the first trillionaire in history this year.

  • joember · acum 4 luni

    MP hajrá!

La 29 sept., 23:46 UTC