Will Mary Peltola receive at least 56% of the popular vote in the final round of the 2026 Alaska Senate election?

If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Mary Peltola in the final round of the 2026 Alaska Senate election is 56% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes. The percentage is calculated as (total votes received by Mary Peltola in the final round ÷ total votes for all candidates remaining in the final round) × 100, rounded to two decimal places; exhausted or inactive ballots are excluded. Except as provided in the Contract, resolution is based on certified/official results only, not preliminary results. Write-in votes are included if they appear in certified results. Invalid, spoiled, or rejected ballots are excluded from both numerator and denominator. The percentage is based on the final round of the ranked choice tabulation. If a candidate wins a majority in the first round and no further rounds are tabulated, the first round is the final round. If Mary Peltola is eliminated before the final round, her percentage is 0%.