Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Yes60 %
No40 %

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Basado en los precios de los posibles resultados de este mercado, expresados como probabilidades.

Reglas de resolución

### **Market Dates:** - **Market Period:** From the publication date until June 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. - **Market Close:** June 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. - **Resolution Time:** Upon official confirmation of the winning candidate. ### **Resolution Criteria:** - This market will resolve to the candidate who is officially declared the winner of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election. - Resolves to "**Yes**" for the candidate who is officially declared the winner. - Resolves to "**No**" for all other listed candidates. - This market includes any potential second-round runoff. - If a listed candidate withdraws, is disqualified, or otherwise does not appear on the final ballot before voting begins, that candidate's outcome will resolve to "No", unless they are nevertheless officially declared the winner before resolution occurs. ### **Resolution Details:** - If the result of this election is not known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No" for all outcomes. ### **Resolution Sources** - This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. - In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official results published by Brazil's Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE). ### **Cancellation Conditions:** - Any circumstance that makes the outcome impossible to determine using the specified criteria. If the market is cancelled, participants can claim their stakes at the then-current market value of their shares, which could result in a profit or a loss depending on the price of those shares at cancellation.

Fuentehttps://www.tse.jus.br/

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Comparables, no idénticas. PredictFun and Myriad specify resolution by June 30, 2027 using credible reporting and, if needed, Brazil’s TSE; Myriad also specifies candidate-withdrawal and cancellation rules. Kalshi lists a settlement time of October 25, 2026 but publishes no additional source or fallback criteria.
  • KalshiAbrir →

    Brazil Presidential election winner?: Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

    If Flávio Bolsonaro has won the 2026 Brazilian presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes.

    leído 29 sept, 20:05 UTC

  • PredictFunAbrir →

    Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

    A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

    leído 29 sept, 18:43 UTC

  • Myriadeste mercado

    Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

    ### **Market Dates:** - **Market Period:** From the publication date until June 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. - **Market Close:** June 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. - **Resolution Time:** Upon official confirmation of the winning candidate. ### **Resolution Criteria:** - This market will resolve to the candidate who is officially declared the winner of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election. - Resolves to "**Yes**" for the candidate who is officially declared the winner. - Resolves to "**No**" for all other listed candidates. - This market includes any potential second-round runoff. - If a listed candidate withdraws, is disqualified, or otherwise does not appear on the final ballot before voting begins, that candidate's outcome will resolve to "No", unless they are nevertheless officially declared the winner before resolution occurs. ### **Resolution Details:** - If the result of this election is not known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No" for all outcomes. ### **Resolution Sources** - This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. - In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official results published by Brazil's Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE). ### **Cancellation Conditions:** - Any circumstance that makes the outcome impossible to determine using the specified criteria. If the market is cancelled, participants can claim their stakes at the then-current market value of their shares, which could result in a profit or a loss depending on the price of those shares at cancellation.

    leído 29 sept, 21:59 UTC

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