Israel Election: Joint List Effectively Banned?

Elections to the 26th Knesset are scheduled to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Joint List is effectively banned from participation in the 2026 Knesset election by October 27, 2026, 11:59 PM Israel time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a ban means any official action by Israeli authorities that prevents the Joint List from contesting the 2026 Knesset election as a candidates’ list. This includes, but is not limited to: the Joint List’s candidates’ list being disqualified under Section 7A of Basic Law: The Knesset; being refused registration, removed from the ballot, or otherwise rendered ineligible to contest the election; the Joint List being forcibly dissolved or deregistered; or an official determination that votes cast for the Joint List’s list will not be counted or will be invalidated. A decision of the Central Elections Committee will not by itself qualify. The disqualification must be final and operative for the 2026 Knesset election, meaning that it has been approved or upheld by the Supreme Court of Israel, or that the time for judicial review has expired without the decision being set aside. If the Supreme Court overturns, sets aside, or declines to approve the disqualification, or if the Joint List is otherwise reinstated and permitted to contest the election, this market will resolve to "No". A decision by the Joint List to voluntarily withdraw from, boycott, or otherwise decline to contest the election will not qualify. The disqualification, withdrawal, arrest, or barring of individual candidates or officials of the Joint List will not qualify, provided the Joint List’s list remains eligible to contest the election. Confirmation of a ban may come from an official announcement by the Israeli government, the Central Elections Committee, the Supreme Court of Israel, the Joint List, or an authorised representative thereof. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Confirmation must occur by October 27, 2026, 11:59 PM Israel time. If no such confirmation occurs by that time, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on official information from the Israeli government and the Joint List; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.