Canadian counter-tariff rate on U.S. EVs at the end of 2026: Will the Canadian federal counter-tariff rate applicable to U.S.-origin battery-electric passenger vehicles on December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET be above 40%?

If the Canadian federal counter-tariff rate applicable to U.S.-origin battery-electric passenger vehicles as of December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET is above 40%, then the market resolves to Yes. “Battery-electric passenger vehicles” refers to vehicles classified under Canadian tariff item 8703.80.00. The measured rate is the standard counter-tariff percentage applicable to non-CUSMA-compliant vehicles, excluding ordinary customs duties, sales taxes, and importer-specific exemptions, remissions or rebates. Settlement uses the rate actually in effect at the specified time, incorporating amendments, suspensions and repeals effective by that time. Announced changes taking effect afterward do not count. If no counter-tariff applies to the defined vehicles at the specified time, the value is 0%. Missing or unavailable source data does not itself establish a 0% rate. For this market, the rate in effect at the specified observation time governs, rather than the first non-preliminary publication. A rate published before issuance remains eligible if it is still in effect at the observation time. No new publication on December 31 is required. Subsequent policy changes do not affect resolution.