KalshiAbierto

What cities will Trump send the National Guard to in 2026? San Francisco

No86 %
San Francisco14 %

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Se resuelve1 ene 2027dentro de 3 meses

Historial de probabilidades

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Los periodos sombreados no tienen una comprobación horaria de precios satisfactoria.

Historial de probabilidades0%25%50%75%100%7 sept13 sept19 sept25 sept2 octLos periodos sombreados no tienen una comprobación horaria de precios satisfactoria.Los periodos sombreados no tienen una comprobación horaria de precios satisfactoria.Los periodos sombreados no tienen una comprobación horaria de precios satisfactoria.Los periodos sombreados no tienen una comprobación horaria de precios satisfactoria.Los periodos sombreados no tienen una comprobación horaria de precios satisfactoria.

Basado en los precios de los posibles resultados de este mercado, expresados como probabilidades.

Reglas de resolución

If the National Guard is deployed to San Francisco after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Deployment means National Guard members arrive in San Francisco on official deployment orders, under State Active Duty (SAD), Title 32, or Title 10 activation, for operational missions (not routine training), with actual presence in San Francisco, not merely assigned or in transit. The following constitutes deployment and resolves **YES**: - Governor activates Guard with deployment to San Francisco - Guard units arrive in San Francisco on emergency orders - Federal activation placing Guard in San Francisco - Inter-state Emergency Management Assistance Compact (EMAC) deployment to San Francisco - Pre-positioned Guard units activated for operations in San Francisco - Any number of Guard members (even one) officially deployed The following does NOT constitute deployment and resolves **NO**: - Deployment announcements without actual arrival - Guard placed on standby/alert status only - Units staged outside San Francisco without entering - Training exercises or routine drills - Guard members traveling through San Francisco to another destination - Planning/assessment teams without follow-on deployment - Off-duty Guard members acting as civilians - Guard at permanent facilities (armories) not on deployment orders - Recruitment or community relations activities - Canceled deployments that never materialize Special provisions: - At least one Guard member must physically arrive in San Francisco. - Deployment must be for operational purposes, not training. - If deployment is announced then canceled before arrival, resolves NO. - Presence for transit only doesn't count. - Re-deployment of already-present units to new locations within San Francisco counts only if they were not previously on deployment orders. - Both Army National Guard and Air National Guard deployments count. - Federal military (non-Guard) deployments do not count.

Otras variantes de este evento

MercadoPlataformaPrecioEstado
What cities will Trump send the National Guard to in 2026? ChicagoKalshi83 % NoAbierto
What cities will Trump send the National Guard to in 2026? PortlandKalshi89 % NoAbierto
What cities will Trump send the National Guard to in 2026? HoustonKalshi82 % NoAbierto
What cities will Trump send the National Guard to in 2026? DetroitKalshi86 % NoAbierto

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A las 2 oct, 04:50 UTC