Victorian state election winner?: Will One Nation win the 2026 Victorian state election?

If One Nation wins the 2026 Victorian state election, then the market resolves to Yes. For parliamentary/legislative elections, the winner is the party, coalition, or alliance winning the most seats in the specified chamber. If two parties have the same number of seats, the one entering government will resolve to Yes and all others to No; if both or neither enter government, the one with the higher share of the vote will resolve to Yes and all others to No. For this market, “Liberals and Nationals” means the combined number of Legislative Assembly seats won by candidates endorsed by the Liberal Party of Australia (Victorian Division) or the National Party of Australia – Victoria. This market is eligible for accelerated resolution by a consensus of media calls. See full rules for details.