Will SCOTUS overturn Trump's $83.3 million Carroll judgment? Before 2028

If the U.S. Supreme Court overturns in full the February 8, 2024 judgment awarding E. Jean Carroll $83.3 million in compensatory and punitive damages in Donald J. Trump v. E. Jean Carroll, No. 26-141, or United States v. E. Jean Carroll, et al., No. 26-142, including any consolidation of those petitions before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. A ruling qualifies only if it leaves none of the February 8, 2024 judgment enforceable against Donald J. Trump. The ruling must: Be issued by the U.S. Supreme Court in Donald J. Trump v. E. Jean Carroll, No. 26-141, or United States v. E. Jean Carroll, et al., No. 26-142, including any consolidation of those petitions Address the matter described by the specified judgment Be issued through a written order, opinion, judgment, or decision The following do NOT satisfy the Payout Criterion: A grant or denial of certiorari, stay, briefing order, scheduling order, or other order that does not itself overturn the full judgment A ruling on presidential immunity, Westfall Act substitution, or another procedural issue that does not require the full judgment to be vacated or set aside A partial reversal, damages reduction, modification, GVR, or remand that does not itself require the full judgment to be vacated or set aside A ruling in Carroll II, No. 25-573, or another separate Carroll proceeding Oral rulings from the bench unless reduced to a written order Tentative rulings that are not made final Draft opinions that leak but are not officially issued Settlements or voluntary dismissals Administrative or scheduling orders For clarity: A ruling in either No. 26-141 or No. 26-142 counts if it matches the specified judgment Per curiam opinions and summary orders count if they match the specified judgment If multiple justices issue separate opinions, the majority or plurality opinion controls