Will Somali pirates successfully seize a vessel by September 30, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Somali pirates seize control of a commercial ship between market creation and the specified date EAT (UTC +3). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Seize control refers to Somali pirates taking custody of or asserting operational control over a commercial ship, including boarding and taking control of the ship, holding or detaining it for an indefinite period, or forcefully rerouting it to a location selected or controlled by the perpetrators. Attacks on military vessels will not be considered. Once a qualifying seizure has occured, any subsequent abandonment, release, rescue, recapture, or other loss of control will not affect the resolution of this market. Missile/drone strikes or any other form of kinetic attack not resulting in the seizure of the targeted ship will not be considered, regardless of damage occured. A qualifying seizure must be attributed to Somali pirates, or other non-state criminal actors based in or operating from Somalia or Somali territorial waters. The perpetrators need not be individually identified or established to be Somali nationals, and the seizure need not occur in Somali waters. Actions primarily attributed to Somali government or security forces, al-Shabaab, ISIS-Somalia, or any other terrorist, insurgent, or state actor will not qualify. Examples of qualifying seizures include the seizure of the MT Sibu 1 on August 20, 2026, and the seizure of the MV Lutuf on August 17, 2026, both of which have been confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have involved Somali pirates taking control of a commercial ship. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. If a potentially qualifying seizure occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM EAT, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the seizure, whether the ship was commercial, or whether the seizure can be attributed to Somali pirates, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, EAT. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.