Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 15?
El precio aún no se ha comprobado de forma independiente.
Historial de probabilidades
Probabilidades implícitas del mercado · Todo el historial registradoArrastra para mover · pellizca o usa ⌘/Ctrl+desplazamiento para ampliar
Los periodos sombreados no tienen una comprobación horaria de precios satisfactoria.
Basado en los precios de los posibles resultados de este mercado, expresados como probabilidades.
Reglas de resolución
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Otras variantes de este evento
Una variante leída sola engaña; las demás están al lado.| Mercado | Plataforma | Precio | Estado |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? | Polymarket | 100 % No | Abierto |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31? | Polymarket | 92 % No | Abierto |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31? | Polymarket | 83 % No | Abierto |
Actividad en la plataforma
Leído de la plataforma hace 10 díasMejor compra — · mejor venta 0 %
Mayores titulares
- FridayImInLove71196432678894692637851043462917445459840798162184260770134856020754277710922
- prophet-spaces72290990319850541708256167232494273215116200141978665698869628917720043765813
- aosdijf71196432678894692637851043462917445459840798162184260770134856020754277710922
- DooBieZ72290990319850541708256167232494273215116200141978665698869628917720043765813
- no.cebo71196432678894692637851043462917445459840798162184260770134856020754277710922
Una instantánea de posiciones, no un historial de resultados.
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- BUY100 %11 US$hace 11 días
Debate en Predxy
Qué opinan los lectores de Predxy sobre este mercado. Todos pueden leer; los lectores con sesión iniciada pueden escribir. El hilo propio de la plataforma, si lo hay, está en el recuadro de abajo.Inicia sesión para participar en el debate.
Nadie ha dicho nada aquí todavía.
275 comentarios
Del hilo propio de Polymarket- Tezcatlipoca · hace 5 días
There was some assumption that if the houthis took over bab they would immediately shut it down and traffic would drop to almost zero. It’s still open and working relatively normally
- zthunderfury · hace 8 días
Imagine thinking random bulk craft going through suez being the same thing as a saudi oil tanker
- Telepath-One · hace 8 días
Because the Houthis recently reinforced their commitment to only striking Saudi ships and Trump allegedly backed off on planned strikes on Yemen.
- TouchdownTerryDunk · hace 8 días
I understand the rules of the wager but I fail to see how 'Houthis seizing control of the BaM and escalating war with Saudi + possibly US' equates to ever diminishing odds of strait closure. Makes no sense.
- 5038813185 · hace 11 días
Time decay. 30+ ships are still going through the strait. But if that will still happen is the question.
- TouchdownTerryDunk · hace 11 días
Sorry, so if it is being reported that "Houthi control over Bab el-Mandeb Strait solidified, raising closure risks", why is the price of Yes for any of the above dates going down? How does this make sense?
- Phenium · hace 12 días
3
- SIMOMEGA · hace 13 días
keep this pfp please
- beartrapper · hace 14 días
every month the reopening gets pushed another month and the money keeps following it, polybro is analysing this market way deeper than I expected
- higinvest · hace 14 días
U.S. ENERGY SECRETARY WRIGHT: GETTING MORE FLOW THROUGH BAB EL-MANDEB STRAIT WOULD BE HELPFUL - REPORTS
- higinvest · hace 14 días
Kaja Kallas: The Bab al-Mandab is currently closed and we must strengthen the "Aspides" operation to ensure maritime security
- higinvest · hace 15 días
YEMENI MILITARY SOURCE TO DPA: THE HOUTHIS HAVE PLANTED MINES INTO THE BAB AL-MANDAB STRAIT
- Eirnearzx51 · hace 15 días
boberne is win
- anónimo · hace 16 días
noone is stopping you lil bro
- tsybka · hace 16 días
I want to buy a lot of Dec NO shares.
- Ideal-Campanile · hace 17 días
Keep dreaming
- WhaleWatch-26463 · hace 17 días
anoin123 is up 2.15% on their $34,072.79 bet on December 31 with outcome No. Current value: $34,803.76. When you see returns like that, you pay attention.
- WhaleWatch-36491 · hace 18 días
RememberAmalek is currently one of the most profitable traders on December 31 with already $2,814.80 / +13.29% in total gains. Their position: $24,000.00 on outcome Yes. When the top earner doubles down, keep watching.
- Car · hace 18 días
bruh
- DontTrustMe · hace 18 días
Yes buyers be like:
A las 30 sept, 15:17 UTC