Gemini 4.0 released by November 30, 2026?
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Historial de probabilidades
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Basado en los precios de los posibles resultados de este mercado, expresados como probabilidades.
Reglas de resolución
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google's Gemini 4.0 is made available to the general public by the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes," Gemini 4.0 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public. If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify. Gemini 4.0 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 4.0 or one that is recognized as a successor to Gemini 3 similar to the progression from Gemini 2.0 to Gemini 3. Products labeled as Gemini 3.0 Flash, Gemini 2.5, or similar will not count for this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
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Gemini 4.0 released by November 30, 2026?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google's Gemini 4.0 Flash model is made available to the general public by the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes," Gemini 4.0 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public. If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify. Gemini 4.0 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 4.0 or one that is recognized as a successor to Gemini 3 similar to the progression from Gemini 2.0 to Gemini 3. Products labeled as Gemini 3.0 Flash, Gemini 2.5, or similar will not count for this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
leído 30 sept, 21:22 UTC
- Polymarketeste mercado
Gemini 4.0 released by November 30, 2026?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google's Gemini 4.0 is made available to the general public by the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes," Gemini 4.0 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public. If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify. Gemini 4.0 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 4.0 or one that is recognized as a successor to Gemini 3 similar to the progression from Gemini 2.0 to Gemini 3. Products labeled as Gemini 3.0 Flash, Gemini 2.5, or similar will not count for this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
64 titulares · 19 comentarios · leído 28 sept, 08:30 UTC
Otras variantes de este evento
Una variante leída sola engaña; las demás están al lado.| Mercado | Plataforma | Precio | Estado |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026? | Polymarket | 100 % No | Abierto |
| Gemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026? | Polymarket | 84 % Yes | Abierto |
| Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026? | Polymarket | 51 % No | Abierto |
| Gemini 4.0 released by October 2, 2026? | Polymarket | 95 % No | Abierto |
| Gemini 4.0 released by October 5, 2026? | Polymarket | 74 % No | Abierto |
| Gemini 4.0 released by October 10, 2026? | Polymarket | 69 % No | Abierto |
Actividad en la plataforma
Leído de la plataforma hace 3 díasMejor compra 5 % · mejor venta 6 %
Mayores titulares
- Contentious-Dinnerdate81555568413718873269035910761387390518264393408216738266893752943667445100126
- qmmar81555568413718873269035910761387390518264393408216738266893752943667445100126
- notssf381555568413718873269035910761387390518264393408216738266893752943667445100126
- tnl104718464326638984317789745224017862707023515739033174165207837414956205546072
- okc35104718464326638984317789745224017862707023515739033174165207837414956205546072
Una instantánea de posiciones, no un historial de resultados.
Operaciones recientes
- BUY95 %19 US$hace 4 días
- SELL6 %1,3 US$hace 4 días
- SELL91 %2,6 US$hace 5 días
- BUY10 %2 US$hace 6 días
- BUY7 %13,8 US$hace 7 días
- BUY95 %4,8 US$hace 8 días
Debate en Predxy
Qué opinan los lectores de Predxy sobre este mercado. Todos pueden leer; los lectores con sesión iniciada pueden escribir. El hilo propio de la plataforma, si lo hay, está en el recuadro de abajo.Inicia sesión para participar en el debate.
Nadie ha dicho nada aquí todavía.
25 comentarios
Del hilo propio de Polymarket- Everestpredictions · hace 12 horas
Gemini 4 Argon - Pump Yes!
- meower1338 · hace 13 horas
hi gemini 4 argon
- Car · hace 18 horas
welcome to another game of insider or idiot
- Gripping-Trance-Sorbet · hace 21 horas
Insider?
- arrakis42 · hace 4 días
Yeah that's why you have another account maxing out on No.. you want people to believe Yes so you can buy a more asymetrial No. If you were this confident why don't go all in on Yes? Why just 5 shares.
- Kelugo · hace 5 días
It will be released on oct first
- George.Smiley · hace 9 días
October 15 or 22nd
- hidv · hace 10 días
Not just the 9to5google report.. it's in google's shareholder notes! Much more like November-December than October.
- Partial-Somewhere · hace 20 días
hirefortuna already uses models not out
- arrakis42 · hace 22 días
@ChefSlick Because 75% is way too high for October. This is an independent assessment site that scooped and analyzed all the available rumors online and they conclude that the model is still training and that : "Gemini 4 should launch in November or December.”. 9to5google com/2026/07/26/google-gemini-4-teases/
- arrakis42 · hace 23 días
This market doesnt make any sense!
- Never-KYS · el mes pasado
I guess it's time boys
- Mikelious · hace 3 meses
It's coming home 17th of July lets goooo
- Mikelious · hace 3 meses
Gemini 3.5 pro just announced as "coming soon" on Google Deep Mind. Gemini 4 is inevitably going to release with it as per credible leakers.
- noniqque · hace 4 meses
we should just short google bro
- 418Imateapot · hace 5 meses
Yes.
- noniqque · hace 5 meses
are prediction markets still extremely inefficient or am I extremely dumb
- AaAbBbCcCdDdEeEFfF · hace 8 meses
Was spotted in Antigravity [link removed]
- AaAbBbCcCdDdEeEFfF · hace 8 meses
Guys they're already A/B testing Gemini 4.0 [link removed]
- George.Smiley · hace 9 meses
A hedge, probably won't pay out but 6 months is a long time
A las 1 oct, 09:00 UTC