Will Russia enter Mykolaivka by September 30, 2026?
Precio comprobado el
Historial de probabilidades
Probabilidades implícitas del mercado · Todo el historial registradoArrastra para mover · pellizca o usa ⌘/Ctrl+desplazamiento para ampliar
Los periodos sombreados no tienen una comprobación horaria de precios satisfactoria.
Basado en los precios de los posibles resultados de este mercado, expresados como probabilidades.
Reglas de resolución
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Mykolaivka, Donetsk Oblast, (48.854785° N, 37.770676° E) between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. The boundaries of the municipality are those shown under the “Ukrainian Settlements” layer on the ISW map. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading under the following layers will qualify: - Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas - Assessed Russian-Controlled Terrain - Assessed Russian Advances Shading under the following layers will not qualify: - Claimed Russian Territory Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded under a qualifying layer on the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Otras variantes de este evento
Una variante leída sola engaña; las demás están al lado.| Mercado | Plataforma | Precio | Estado |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will Russia enter Mykolaivka by October 31, 2026? | Polymarket | 98 % Yes | Abierto |
| Will Russia enter Mykolaivka by December 31, 2026? | Polymarket | 98 % Yes | Abierto |
Actividad en la plataforma
Leído de la plataforma hace 13 horasMejor compra 24 % · mejor venta 36 %
Mayores titulares
- bipbipbop45681419501727432149522475937464248601907707153656228108744494495267199657268
- JoeBlack0175900845287799547615368452877294884856883030692376741195015801935922254264792
- InterestingUser45681419501727432149522475937464248601907707153656228108744494495267199657268
- anoin12345681419501727432149522475937464248601907707153656228108744494495267199657268
- Selfish-Scratch45681419501727432149522475937464248601907707153656228108744494495267199657268
Una instantánea de posiciones, no un historial de resultados.
Operaciones recientes
- BUY76 %1 US$hace 13 horas
- SELL69 %102,7 US$hace 14 horas
- BUY78 %99,9 US$hace 14 horas
- SELL23 %9,2 US$hace 15 horas
- BUY71 %50 US$hace 15 horas
- BUY62 %3,1 US$hace 15 horas
Debate en Predxy
Qué opinan los lectores de Predxy sobre este mercado. Todos pueden leer; los lectores con sesión iniciada pueden escribir. El hilo propio de la plataforma, si lo hay, está en el recuadro de abajo.Inicia sesión para participar en el debate.
Nadie ha dicho nada aquí todavía.
45 comentarios
Del hilo propio de Polymarket- firewalker923 · hace 13 horas
Respectfully, your statement shows you don't fully understand this market. Russian troops have been spotted in Mykolyaivka at various times for the past month. Therefore, we know that a single "spotted Russian" does not lead ISW to mark an area as an "Assessed Russian Infiltration" layer. Plus, ISW did not confirm an infiltration. They said an observer reported it. And their latest screenshot DOES NOT include the spot as part of ANY layer. In fact, even the territory NEAREST the spot is not an "Assessed Infiltration" layer. It is merely a "Claimed Russian Territory" layer, which is not criteria for the YES side - if the spot was even part of said layer, which it isn't.
- AntonKovac · hace 13 horas
Yeah yeah stop manipulating the market
- tsybka · hace 14 horas
In their daily reports, ISW confirmed the infiltration in the southern part of the city. A new zone is also visible on their screenshot, but they forgot to mark it on the map itself. I recommend emailing point out this error. They usually review messages and, recently, have even started replying to them.
- Voland6777 · hace 16 horas
Ahh, ok
- bohdancio · hace 16 horas
The 24-hour requirement doesn’t necessarily mean that those 24 hours have to be within the same month. If the map is updated on September 30, the 24-hour period can extend into October. What matters is that the map remains updated for 24 hours before it can resolve YES.
- Voland6777 · hace 16 horas
There is an update report, but ISW map itself is not updated and by rules it needs 24 hours to keep map updated, before it can be resolved as - "YES"
- bohdancio · hace 16 horas
It’s September 30 today! Once they make the changes visible to everyone today, nothing should stop this from resolving YES (unless they decide to joke).
- Voland6777 · hace 16 horas
But map wasn't updated, so September should have - No result
- bohdancio · hace 16 horas
ISW just published their daily assessment😊😊
- SlowFog · hace 18 horas
That spike was all caused by two accounts and they are both getting rinsed on their trade
- SlowFog · hace 18 horas
That spike over the last 15 hours is just two accounts, see the activity. Caused a panic.
- drachenlord1710 · hace 18 horas
isw is not out yet
- SlowFog · hace 18 horas
😅
- Seriip · hace 18 horas
This is what happens when you fly in feet-first, following the crowd without checking first. ISW is running true to form, as always. Thanks everyone :)
- Seriip · hace 18 horas
Lol, well, they really took us for a ride)))
- antofmanzur · hace 20 horas
hahaha ikr, easy af
- drachenlord1710 · hace 21 horas
there was no infiltrarion yesterday and Ukraine has the initiative in this direction so...
- antofmanzur · hace 21 horas
it´ll end in around 3 hours, no news, NO has value
- drachenlord1710 · hace 23 horas
I love how Russians still dont understand what infiltrations are...
- ProxyOne · ayer
Just Mashkovets
A las 30 sept, 18:24 UTC