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PolymarketAbierto

U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by September 30?

No100 %
Yes0 %

Precio comprobado el

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Volumen 24 h23,3 US$
Volumen 7 d465 US$
Volumen 30 d1 mil US$
Liquidez11 mil US$
Spread0 %
Se resuelve1 oct 2026dentro de 6 horas

Historial de probabilidades

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Los periodos sombreados no tienen una comprobación horaria de precios satisfactoria.

Historial de probabilidades0%25%50%75%100%2 sept9 sept16 sept23 sept30 septLos periodos sombreados no tienen una comprobación horaria de precios satisfactoria.Los periodos sombreados no tienen una comprobación horaria de precios satisfactoria.Los periodos sombreados no tienen una comprobación horaria de precios satisfactoria.Los periodos sombreados no tienen una comprobación horaria de precios satisfactoria.Los periodos sombreados no tienen una comprobación horaria de precios satisfactoria.Los periodos sombreados no tienen una comprobación horaria de precios satisfactoria.Los periodos sombreados no tienen una comprobación horaria de precios satisfactoria.Los periodos sombreados no tienen una comprobación horaria de precios satisfactoria.Los periodos sombreados no tienen una comprobación horaria de precios satisfactoria.Los periodos sombreados no tienen una comprobación horaria de precios satisfactoria.Los periodos sombreados no tienen una comprobación horaria de precios satisfactoria.Los periodos sombreados no tienen una comprobación horaria de precios satisfactoria.Los periodos sombreados no tienen una comprobación horaria de precios satisfactoria.Los periodos sombreados no tienen una comprobación horaria de precios satisfactoria.Los periodos sombreados no tienen una comprobación horaria de precios satisfactoria.Los periodos sombreados no tienen una comprobación horaria de precios satisfactoria.Los periodos sombreados no tienen una comprobación horaria de precios satisfactoria.Los periodos sombreados no tienen una comprobación horaria de precios satisfactoria.Los periodos sombreados no tienen una comprobación horaria de precios satisfactoria.Los periodos sombreados no tienen una comprobación horaria de precios satisfactoria.Los periodos sombreados no tienen una comprobación horaria de precios satisfactoria.Los periodos sombreados no tienen una comprobación horaria de precios satisfactoria.Los periodos sombreados no tienen una comprobación horaria de precios satisfactoria.Los periodos sombreados no tienen una comprobación horaria de precios satisfactoria.Los periodos sombreados no tienen una comprobación horaria de precios satisfactoria.Los periodos sombreados no tienen una comprobación horaria de precios satisfactoria.Los periodos sombreados no tienen una comprobación horaria de precios satisfactoria.Los periodos sombreados no tienen una comprobación horaria de precios satisfactoria.Los periodos sombreados no tienen una comprobación horaria de precios satisfactoria.

Basado en los precios de los posibles resultados de este mercado, expresados como probabilidades.

Reglas de resolución

This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement on nuclear arms control or strategic nuclear weapons limitation is reached between the United States and the Russian Federation between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Only agreements that are publicly announced and acknowledged by both the U.S. and Russia will qualify. The agreement must pertain to nuclear arms control or limitation—such as a treaty, framework, or memorandum—addressing matters including (but not limited to) nuclear warheads, delivery systems, verification mechanisms, or strategic stability. An extension, amendment, or replacement of the New START treaty will qualify, provided it is publicly announced as a concluded agreement by both parties within the time frame. Exploratory discussions or stated intent to extend without a finalized agreement will not qualify. Agreements that include both the United States and Russia as named parties—whether bilateral or as part of a broader multilateral framework—will qualify, provided the agreement directly addresses nuclear arms control. The agreement does not need to be ratified or implemented for this market to resolve "Yes"; a formal announcement of a concluded agreement is sufficient. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the U.S. government (e.g., the White House, State Department) and/or the Russian Federation (e.g., the Kremlin, Ministry of Foreign Affairs). However, a clear and overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such an agreement has been reached will also qualify.

Otras variantes de este evento

MercadoPlataformaPrecioEstado
U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by December 31, 2026?Polymarket95 % NoAbierto

Actividad en la plataforma

Titulares29
Valor en posiciones—
Operaciones (24 h)—
Operaciones—
Interés abierto—
Comentarios35

Mejor compra 0 % · mejor venta 1 %

Mayores titulares

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  • LornaPredicts98759146763395859230536380977268952103155345229784627636280176372439650750984
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Una instantánea de posiciones, no un historial de resultados.

Operaciones recientes

  • BUY100 %23,3 US$ayer
  • SELL100 %52,4 US$anteayer
  • SELL100 %17,5 US$anteayer
  • BUY100 %20 US$anteayer
  • SELL100 %5 US$anteayer
  • BUY100 %18,3 US$anteayer

Debate en Predxy

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35 comentarios

Los comentarios pertenecen al evento de la plataforma, no a este resultado. Todas las variantes del mismo evento comparten este hilo.
  • Eia · hace 8 meses

    I see, nice profit there. Whats your Yes target price for re-entry? Looking forward to the future fill

  • Porx · hace 8 meses

    I sold at the highest point because liquidity would still come here.

  • Eia · hace 8 meses

    With that level of conviction one would think you should own some yes shares before calling out the other side? Please fill some more of my no position. But you are ignoring the fact that the treaty has been dead since the Rus/Ukr war and that the US has no benefit of signing it. No less, since the orange buffoon took office the world order has drastically changed, to the point where "last 50 years" is irrelevant.

  • Glodisdal · hace 8 meses

    Rubio: I don't have any announcement on New START. Obviously, the President's been clear in the past that in order to have true arms control in the 21st century, it's impossible to do something that doesn't include China because of their vast and rapidly growing stockpile. no china = no deal …

  • Glodisdal · hace 8 meses

    Why should the "no" side be "very wrong"? Until a few weeks ago, you claimed that the treaty would be extended, and you were completely wrong. The article even says that no agreement could be reached. Perhaps you should listen again to Trump's past interviews, in which he always said that an extension would only be possible with the inclusion of China.

  • Porx · hace 8 meses

    START treaties have been extended or re-signed for 50 years; this time, stupid Trump simply dragged things out for a few weeks or months. Those who bought "no" at such a high price were very wrong.

  • Porx · hace 8 meses

    The US and Russia are negotiating an extension of the New START agreement - AXIOS

  • Eia · hace 8 meses

    Guess you are right, but would've been better if you sold 😅

  • DM7622 · hace 8 meses

    its a no by feb 4

  • Porx · hace 9 meses

    I never lie, Trump actually said he wants to make a new deal, what's the problem?

  • Eia · hace 9 meses

    Dont ruin his game. Porx always buys yes, comes with an undocumented claim, and then sells out. So trade against it instead.

  • Glodisdal · hace 9 meses

    The comment below is complete bullshit. Trump said he would let the treaty expire. Quote: "When it expires, it expires."

  • Porx · hace 9 meses

    Donald Trump has announced his readiness to conclude a new nuclear arms control treaty with Russia.

  • AnonSequitur · hace 10 meses

    This is the shittiest market ever

  • BigBoot · hace 10 meses

    Trump's new peace plan's 17th point references continuation of the New START Treaty that would count for resolution of this market. Since the market for ceasefire in Ukraine this year is at 15%, it seems that this market is severely underrated

  • Svitovid · hace 11 meses

    We dont want nukes in golden age!

  • Svitovid · hace 11 meses

    N word?

  • wbxxx · hace 12 meses

    Highly undervalued

  • anónimo · hace 12 meses

    When will this meeting be?

  • Porx · hace 12 meses

    Putin is very insistent on pushing this through to Trump and will definitely propose announcing the extension of the New START Treaty following the Budapest meeting.

A las 30 sept, 22:17 UTC