Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026?
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Historial de probabilidades
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Basado en los precios de los posibles resultados de este mercado, expresados como probabilidades.
Reglas de resolución
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield. Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution. Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US. The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Otras variantes de este evento
Una variante leída sola engaña; las demás están al lado.| Mercado | Plataforma | Precio | Estado |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by December 31 2026? | Polymarket | 96 % No | Abierto |
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Debate en Predxy
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23 comentarios
Del hilo propio de Polymarket- Danya.Savin · hace 2 meses
на удачу🏴
- crux1s · hace 2 meses
Where the in combat prediction market? If Nuke gonna be used
- maklermakler · hace 4 meses
there could be, apperntly elon musk was discussing surgical large scale weaponry this week at the white house correspondence dinner
- S888 · hace 5 meses
Nuclear testing program and your bet is dumb
- thecaricature · hace 5 meses
We do have a nuclear program.
- thecaricature · hace 5 meses
It was a warcrime when we used them on Japan, and that didn't stop us. 🤣
- thecaricature · hace 5 meses
"More large-scale surgical."
- CompromisedGuy · hace 6 meses
Maybe there's a more powerful weapon against iran than a nuclear weapon. Something more large-scale surgical.
- SanchisMAD · hace 6 meses
What about a yes-combat detonation in Iran?
- Master-bettor · hace 7 meses
yes no maybe so
- archived250101 · hace 7 meses
No. Nukes are impractical to use and have never been used for a long time. Of course North Korea still does it because it's a toy to them, however UN considers it a war crime to use.
- adonpoli · hace 9 meses
nice
- S888 · hace 11 meses
why are people betting the US will have a nuclear program set up in less than 2 weeks? lol
- copefan · hace 11 meses
He said we will test nuclear like other countries did, he might refer to North Korea in 2017 where they did detonate a nuclear warhead, also after the journalist said if he’s going to test with actual warheads he said he cannot tell
- hutu · hace 11 meses
I doubt the U.S. goes for a nuclear test anytime soon, but every time tensions spike, people start wondering if Washington might revive old Cold War habits.
- Crowded-Screwup · hace 11 meses
A U.S. nuclear test could happen by the end of 2025 if geopolitical tensions escalate, but such a decision would likely be met with international criticism and calls for diplomacy.
- Rebecco · hace 11 meses
hope for world peace
- semid · hace 11 meses
I should be holding better to my yesses then
- cryptogatsu · hace 11 meses
ez moonie [link removed]
- semid · hace 11 meses
Noope
A las 1 oct, 10:13 UTC