Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?

No98 %
Yes2 %

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Se resuelve1 ene 2027dentro de 3 meses

Historial de probabilidades

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Los periodos sombreados no tienen una comprobación horaria de precios satisfactoria.

Historial de probabilidades0%25%50%75%100%2 sept9 sept16 sept23 sept30 septLos periodos sombreados no tienen una comprobación horaria de precios satisfactoria.Los periodos sombreados no tienen una comprobación horaria de precios satisfactoria.Los periodos sombreados no tienen una comprobación horaria de precios satisfactoria.Los periodos sombreados no tienen una comprobación horaria de precios satisfactoria.Los periodos sombreados no tienen una comprobación horaria de precios satisfactoria.Los periodos sombreados no tienen una comprobación horaria de precios satisfactoria.Los periodos sombreados no tienen una comprobación horaria de precios satisfactoria.Los periodos sombreados no tienen una comprobación horaria de precios satisfactoria.Los periodos sombreados no tienen una comprobación horaria de precios satisfactoria.Los periodos sombreados no tienen una comprobación horaria de precios satisfactoria.Los periodos sombreados no tienen una comprobación horaria de precios satisfactoria.Los periodos sombreados no tienen una comprobación horaria de precios satisfactoria.Los periodos sombreados no tienen una comprobación horaria de precios satisfactoria.Los periodos sombreados no tienen una comprobación horaria de precios satisfactoria.Los periodos sombreados no tienen una comprobación horaria de precios satisfactoria.Los periodos sombreados no tienen una comprobación horaria de precios satisfactoria.Los periodos sombreados no tienen una comprobación horaria de precios satisfactoria.Los periodos sombreados no tienen una comprobación horaria de precios satisfactoria.Los periodos sombreados no tienen una comprobación horaria de precios satisfactoria.Los periodos sombreados no tienen una comprobación horaria de precios satisfactoria.Los periodos sombreados no tienen una comprobación horaria de precios satisfactoria.Los periodos sombreados no tienen una comprobación horaria de precios satisfactoria.Los periodos sombreados no tienen una comprobación horaria de precios satisfactoria.Los periodos sombreados no tienen una comprobación horaria de precios satisfactoria.Los periodos sombreados no tienen una comprobación horaria de precios satisfactoria.Los periodos sombreados no tienen una comprobación horaria de precios satisfactoria.Los periodos sombreados no tienen una comprobación horaria de precios satisfactoria.Los periodos sombreados no tienen una comprobación horaria de precios satisfactoria.Los periodos sombreados no tienen una comprobación horaria de precios satisfactoria.Los periodos sombreados no tienen una comprobación horaria de precios satisfactoria.

Basado en los precios de los posibles resultados de este mercado, expresados como probabilidades.

Reglas de resolución

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States acquires control of any land territory that is part of Greenland by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Only the transfer of sovereignty, or the acquisition of primary or exclusive jurisdiction or control qualifies. 1. Transfer of Sovereignty: This will qualify if a binding agreement or legal instrument results in a defined area of Greenland coming under the formal sovereignty of the U.S. (e.g., incorporated as a U.S. state, territory, possession, or other U.S. political classification), even if the effective date occurs after the market deadline. 2. Acquisition of Primary or Exclusive Jurisdiction or Control: This will qualify if a binding agreement or legal instrument establishes a defined area in Greenland in which the U.S. has primary or exclusive jurisdiction or control over the territory, such that the ordinary legal authority of Denmark and Greenland do not apply,except by U.S. permission. Such agreements or instruments will qualify even if the effective date occurs after the market deadline. 3. Use of Force: If the U.S. acquires primary or exclusive jurisdiction or control over a defined area of Greenland through force, this will also qualify. An announcement will qualify only if it is accompanied by or consists of a binding agreement or legal instrument (e.g., enacted legislation, a signed treaty, the signed text of an agreement, or an executive action implementing such an agreement) that unambiguously creates a transfer of sovereignty, or primary or exclusive jurisdiction or control, even if this transfer or acquisition takes effect after the market deadline. Non-binding statements, negotiations, proposals, frameworks, or MOUs will not alone qualify. Basing rights, access agreements, SOFA-type arrangements, COFA-type arrangements, commercial concessions, or other permissions to use land (including leases) will not alone qualify. Any qualifying U.S. jurisdiction or control in Greenland that existed at market creation will not count as new qualifying control. Examples of qualifying events include but are not limited to treaty or piece of legislation that makes any portion of Greenland a U.S. territory or possession, even if the handover date for such territory or possession is later); or, a Guantánamo-style arrangement establishing a defined zone in Greenland under exclusive or primary U.S. jurisdiction and control, where Denmark and Greenland’s ordinary legal authority does not apply except by U.S. permission. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States, Denmark, and Greenland; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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  • OpinionAbrir →

    Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?

    This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States acquires control of any land territory that is part of Greenland by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Only the transfer of sovereignty, or the acquisition of primary or exclusive jurisdiction or control qualifies. 1. Transfer of Sovereignty: This will qualify if a binding agreement or legal instrument results in a defined area of Greenland coming under the formal sovereignty of the U.S. (e.g., incorporated as a U.S. state, territory, possession, or other U.S. political classification), even if the effective date occurs after the market deadline. 2. Acquisition of Primary or Exclusive Jurisdiction or Control: This will qualify if a binding agreement or legal instrument establishes a defined area in Greenland in which the U.S. has primary or exclusive jurisdiction or control over the territory, such that the ordinary legal authority of Denmark and Greenland do not apply,except by U.S. permission. Such agreements or instruments will qualify even if the effective date occurs after the market deadline. 3. Use of Force: If the U.S. acquires primary or exclusive jurisdiction or control over a defined area of Greenland through force, this will also qualify. An announcement will qualify only if it is accompanied by or consists of a binding agreement or legal instrument (e.g., enacted legislation, a signed treaty, the signed text of an agreement, or an executive action implementing such an agreement) that unambiguously creates a transfer of sovereignty, or primary or exclusive jurisdiction or control, even if this transfer or acquisition takes effect after the market deadline. Non-binding statements, negotiations, proposals, frameworks, or MOUs will not alone qualify. Basing rights, access agreements, SOFA-type arrangements, COFA-type arrangements, commercial concessions, or other permissions to use land (including leases) will not alone qualify. Any qualifying U.S. jurisdiction or control in Greenland that existed at market creation will not count as new qualifying control. Examples of qualifying events include but are not limited to treaty or piece of legislation that makes any portion of Greenland a U.S. territory or possession, even if the handover date for such territory or possession is later); or, a Guantánamo-style arrangement establishing a defined zone in Greenland under exclusive or primary U.S. jurisdiction and control, where Denmark and Greenland’s ordinary legal authority does not apply except by U.S. permission. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States, Denmark, and Greenland; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

    leído 30 sept, 21:50 UTC

  • Polymarketeste mercado

    Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?

    This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States acquires control of any land territory that is part of Greenland by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Only the transfer of sovereignty, or the acquisition of primary or exclusive jurisdiction or control qualifies. 1. Transfer of Sovereignty: This will qualify if a binding agreement or legal instrument results in a defined area of Greenland coming under the formal sovereignty of the U.S. (e.g., incorporated as a U.S. state, territory, possession, or other U.S. political classification), even if the effective date occurs after the market deadline. 2. Acquisition of Primary or Exclusive Jurisdiction or Control: This will qualify if a binding agreement or legal instrument establishes a defined area in Greenland in which the U.S. has primary or exclusive jurisdiction or control over the territory, such that the ordinary legal authority of Denmark and Greenland do not apply,except by U.S. permission. Such agreements or instruments will qualify even if the effective date occurs after the market deadline. 3. Use of Force: If the U.S. acquires primary or exclusive jurisdiction or control over a defined area of Greenland through force, this will also qualify. An announcement will qualify only if it is accompanied by or consists of a binding agreement or legal instrument (e.g., enacted legislation, a signed treaty, the signed text of an agreement, or an executive action implementing such an agreement) that unambiguously creates a transfer of sovereignty, or primary or exclusive jurisdiction or control, even if this transfer or acquisition takes effect after the market deadline. Non-binding statements, negotiations, proposals, frameworks, or MOUs will not alone qualify. Basing rights, access agreements, SOFA-type arrangements, COFA-type arrangements, commercial concessions, or other permissions to use land (including leases) will not alone qualify. Any qualifying U.S. jurisdiction or control in Greenland that existed at market creation will not count as new qualifying control. Examples of qualifying events include but are not limited to treaty or piece of legislation that makes any portion of Greenland a U.S. territory or possession, even if the handover date for such territory or possession is later); or, a Guantánamo-style arrangement establishing a defined zone in Greenland under exclusive or primary U.S. jurisdiction and control, where Denmark and Greenland’s ordinary legal authority does not apply except by U.S. permission. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States, Denmark, and Greenland; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

    2,8 mil titulares · 276 comentarios · leído 27 sept, 04:44 UTC

  • LimitlessAbrir →

    Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?

    This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States acquires control of any land territory that is part of Greenland by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Only the transfer of sovereignty, or the acquisition of primary or exclusive jurisdiction or control qualifies. 1. Transfer of Sovereignty: This will qualify if a binding agreement or legal instrument results in a defined area of Greenland coming under the formal sovereignty of the U.S. (e.g., incorporated as a U.S. state, territory, possession, or other U.S. political classification), even if the effective date occurs after the market deadline. 2. Acquisition of Primary or Exclusive Jurisdiction or Control: This will qualify if a binding agreement or legal instrument establishes a defined area in Greenland in which the U.S. has primary or exclusive jurisdiction or control over the territory, such that the ordinary legal authority of Denmark and Greenland do not apply,except by U.S. permission. Such agreements or instruments will qualify even if the effective date occurs after the market deadline. 3. Use of Force: If the U.S. acquires primary or exclusive jurisdiction or control over a defined area of Greenland through force, this will also qualify. An announcement will qualify only if it is accompanied by or consists of a binding agreement or legal instrument (e.g., enacted legislation, a signed treaty, the signed text of an agreement, or an executive action implementing such an agreement) that unambiguously creates a transfer of sovereignty, or primary or exclusive jurisdiction or control, even if this transfer or acquisition takes effect after the market deadline. Non-binding statements, negotiations, proposals, frameworks, or MOUs will not alone qualify. Basing rights, access agreements, SOFA-type arrangements, COFA-type arrangements, commercial concessions, or other permissions to use land (including leases) will not alone qualify. Any qualifying U.S. jurisdiction or control in Greenland that existed at market creation will not count as new qualifying control. Examples of qualifying events include but are not limited to treaty or piece of legislation that makes any portion of Greenland a U.S. territory or possession, even if the handover date for such territory or possession is later); or, a Guantánamo-style arrangement establishing a defined zone in Greenland under exclusive or primary U.S. jurisdiction and control, where Denmark and Greenland’s ordinary legal authority does not apply except by U.S. permission. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States, Denmark, and Greenland; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

    2 titulares · leído 30 sept, 19:03 UTC

Actividad en la plataforma

Titulares2,8 mil
Valor en posiciones—
Operaciones (24 h)—
Operaciones—
Interés abierto—
Comentarios256

Mejor compra 98 % · mejor venta 98 %

Mayores titulares

  • Jan777104895545296438735617666172336621441242754294947987367085791779928220778311973
  • LlamaLoco000060745476350338574489643206785963608049827415658137795738920858026399504782388
  • fastviking60745476350338574489643206785963608049827415658137795738920858026399504782388
  • SwissMiss104895545296438735617666172336621441242754294947987367085791779928220778311973
  • cqs104895545296438735617666172336621441242754294947987367085791779928220778311973

Una instantánea de posiciones, no un historial de resultados.

Operaciones recientes

  • SELL98 %10,1 US$hace 4 días
  • BUY2 %3,6 US$hace 4 días
  • SELL98 %7,8 US$hace 4 días
  • SELL98 %7,8 US$hace 4 días
  • SELL98 %5 US$hace 4 días
  • BUY98 %5 US$hace 4 días

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256 comentarios

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  • 404404 · hace 4 días

    A lease and sovereign territory differ

  • geeco · hace 8 días

    Sorry, but it seems you are quoting the wrong document. It states that "Reaffirming the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the Kingdom of Denmark, and recognizing that the People of Greenland constitute a people pursuant to international law with the right to self-determination".

  • Vodka- · hace 8 días

    Article VIII. The Government of the United States of America shall have the right to exercise exclusive jurisdiction over those defense areas in Greenland for which it is responsible under Article II (3) idk

  • Masterbet · hace 12 días

    Not yes, pilymarket is rigged

  • geeco · hace 12 días

    A bet on NO is now a pure arbitrage, according to the rules.

  • STANIS11 · hace 2 meses

    if groenland have oil 100%

  • Voidofhype · hace 5 meses

    A White House official told the BBC the administration was very optimistic the talks were headed in the right direction. Denmark has previously expressed a willingness to discuss additional American military bases on the island, and its foreign ministry confirmed talks with the US were taking place. "There is an ongoing diplomatic track with the United States. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs will not go into further detail at this time," a spokesperson said. US officials have floated an arrangement in which the three new military bases would be formally designated as US sovereign territory, according to one source with knowledge of the negotiations. The bases would be in southern Greenland and primarily focus on surveillance of potential Russian and Chinese maritime activity in an area of the northern Atlantic between Greenland, Iceland and the United Kingdom known as the GIUK Gap, the officials who spoke to the BBC said.

  • cadencede · hace 5 meses

    i dont understand the resolution, does a 99-year lease or military basing agreement count as 'acquiring part of Greenland'? i asked my agent at preftrade and it said: “If it requires actual sovereignty transfer, 14¢ feels high. Denmark has been explicit they won't sell. If a long-term arrangement counts, 14¢ might actually be low given the pace of US pressure.” i bought no!!

  • gakov · hace 6 meses

    How can people still buy yes??

  • B2-AIR · hace 6 meses

    Trump's Greenland framework announced at Davos in January is a negotiating position dressed up in diplomatic language - Greenland's government has said repeatedly and publicly that the island is not for sale, and Denmark has NATO cover to resist any coercive annexation. A security arrangement giving the US expanded basing rights is the realistic ceiling here, not actual acquisition. The 16% YES feels at least 10 points too high.

  • grandmasterprescriber · hace 6 meses

    no chance, have their hands full elsewhere

  • whumpa · hace 6 meses

    I forgot I have bets on this. Are people still betting on this lol

  • DarkEntries · hace 7 meses

    How's that going for you now?

  • SuckMyDicck · hace 8 meses

    That's the skill how Trump does his business, e.g talk & apply sanctions back and forth. I don't know folding or not, but I firmly hold the belief he will do it. at least it's 40% chance or more.

  • rugtastic · hace 8 meses

    No could be 99 to 1 and it would still be undervalued

  • guacamole.nz · hace 8 meses

    The ham fisted approach did not work. Only way to do it now is by diplomatic means. First you got to wait a little to calm this thing down. Then you can start to cohecre and bribe Danish and greenlandic officials, slowly building political support within the country. Once you have gained some trust you explain how much better everything will be. Once the pie in the sky is clearly visible you bring it to the vote. I'd say it's doable in about 3 years. Very ambitious timeline. Just at the very end of the term.

  • BidenHenHao · hace 8 meses

    I think there’s zero chance this happens by year-end because the 2009 Self-Government Act gives Greenlanders, not Denmark, the final say—and they’ve already said no. Any move to buy them out would trigger a constitutional crisis in Copenhagen and a total meltdown within NATO. At most, we’ll see a new defense or mining lease, but actual "acquisition" is a pipe dream for 2026.

  • Chromalts · hace 8 meses

    By folding, Trump directly told everyone, what he said about the importance of owning Greenland wasnt true. If there actually was any importance there, then why fold?

  • Chromalts · hace 8 meses

    If its so important, then why did Trump back down from the idea? He faced off with all of EU and his bluff got called. If you play poker and make outrages bets and somebody forces you to play the bets to the end and you then fold. Well then your strategy failed but also nobody is gonna think you were serious to begin with. By fol

  • Chromalts · hace 8 meses

    No, this is not about military operations on land, its about sovereignty of the land. No military base ever includes the agreement to own the land, they get to place their buildings and resources there, but a military base would never be imbued the powers to sovereign the land. This is not going to happen. and it definitely, categorically cant happen by just building a military base.

A las 30 sept, 22:04 UTC