Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
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Historial de probabilidades
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Basado en los precios de los posibles resultados de este mercado, expresados como probabilidades.
Reglas de resolución
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL. This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
Actividad en la plataforma
Leído de la plataforma anteayerMejor compra 85 % · mejor venta 91 %
Mayores titulares
- johnnyA24253954592444508770316971646035389318727679510133371245861695452805892494045
- Flamboyant-Warming24253954592444508770316971646035389318727679510133371245861695452805892494045
- Gennedy99651361099608953982756497253689593882335378715790744006963375820984581896327
- DominuxLux99651361099608953982756497253689593882335378715790744006963375820984581896327
- Herald-PS99651361099608953982756497253689593882335378715790744006963375820984581896327
Una instantánea de posiciones, no un historial de resultados.
Operaciones recientes
- SELL93 %46 US$anteayer
- SELL94 %9,4 US$anteayer
- SELL5 %0,5 US$anteayer
- SELL5 %1 US$anteayer
- SELL4 %0,5 US$anteayer
- SELL4 %1,7 US$anteayer
Debate en Predxy
Qué opinan los lectores de Predxy sobre este mercado. Todos pueden leer; los lectores con sesión iniciada pueden escribir. El hilo propio de la plataforma, si lo hay, está en el recuadro de abajo.Inicia sesión para participar en el debate.
Nadie ha dicho nada aquí todavía.
13 comentarios
Del hilo propio de Polymarket- johnnyA · hace 5 días
No, rules say "conterminous United States"
- emeraldhands · hace 5 días
If get Hawaii Cat 4 it will be yes, right?
- Ebonyshade · hace 5 meses
- Bugblatter · hace 5 meses
Yes, plus el niño suppresses Atlantic hurricane formation and this year's is likely to be strongest since 1877. Yes is overvalued.
- marco62 · hace 6 meses
Hope No
- Payna · hace 7 meses
Helene in 2024 proved that 'major' status is now a baseline risk
- moistcookie · hace 9 meses
why do negative pnls have the most to say
- Relaccsed · hace 9 meses
In the last 20 years, there have only been 5 category 4 hurricanes.. That’d put the odds for this year around 25% - YES. For the last 80 years, the long term average is actually only 22%!
- Relaccsed · hace 9 meses
Seems pretty overvalued.
- Relaccsed · hace 9 meses
Only cat 4.
- i2dt · hace 9 meses
They actually just added a cat 5 market, so this looks more confident this is only cat 4
- NeoVanguard · hace 9 meses
According to rules, it is only 4. But don't be surprised if scammers here manipulate it to include 5 too.
- PortnoyAndHodge · hace 9 meses
So only 4, not 4 and above?
A las 2 oct, 10:42 UTC