Cargando…
Predxy

Buscar

Escribe al menos dos caracteres.

PolymarketAbiertoParte de una pregunta en varias plataformas →

Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?

No71 %
Yes30 %

Precio comprobado el

Operar
Define tu país para ver dónde puedes operar.Definir tu país →
Abre la plataforma en una pestaña nueva, a través de Predxy.
Volumen 24 h1 mil US$
Volumen 7 d21,4 mil US$
Volumen 30 d137,2 mil US$
Liquidez72,7 mil US$
Spread1 %
Se resuelve4 nov 2026el próximo mes

Historial de probabilidades

Arrastra para mover · pellizca o usa ⌘/Ctrl+desplazamiento para ampliar

Los periodos sombreados no tienen una comprobación horaria de precios satisfactoria.

Historial de probabilidades0%25%50%75%100%2 sept9 sept16 sept23 sept30 septLos periodos sombreados no tienen una comprobación horaria de precios satisfactoria.Los periodos sombreados no tienen una comprobación horaria de precios satisfactoria.Los periodos sombreados no tienen una comprobación horaria de precios satisfactoria.Los periodos sombreados no tienen una comprobación horaria de precios satisfactoria.Los periodos sombreados no tienen una comprobación horaria de precios satisfactoria.Los periodos sombreados no tienen una comprobación horaria de precios satisfactoria.Los periodos sombreados no tienen una comprobación horaria de precios satisfactoria.Los periodos sombreados no tienen una comprobación horaria de precios satisfactoria.Los periodos sombreados no tienen una comprobación horaria de precios satisfactoria.Los periodos sombreados no tienen una comprobación horaria de precios satisfactoria.Los periodos sombreados no tienen una comprobación horaria de precios satisfactoria.Los periodos sombreados no tienen una comprobación horaria de precios satisfactoria.Los periodos sombreados no tienen una comprobación horaria de precios satisfactoria.Los periodos sombreados no tienen una comprobación horaria de precios satisfactoria.Los periodos sombreados no tienen una comprobación horaria de precios satisfactoria.Los periodos sombreados no tienen una comprobación horaria de precios satisfactoria.Los periodos sombreados no tienen una comprobación horaria de precios satisfactoria.Los periodos sombreados no tienen una comprobación horaria de precios satisfactoria.Los periodos sombreados no tienen una comprobación horaria de precios satisfactoria.Los periodos sombreados no tienen una comprobación horaria de precios satisfactoria.Los periodos sombreados no tienen una comprobación horaria de precios satisfactoria.Los periodos sombreados no tienen una comprobación horaria de precios satisfactoria.Los periodos sombreados no tienen una comprobación horaria de precios satisfactoria.Los periodos sombreados no tienen una comprobación horaria de precios satisfactoria.Los periodos sombreados no tienen una comprobación horaria de precios satisfactoria.Los periodos sombreados no tienen una comprobación horaria de precios satisfactoria.Los periodos sombreados no tienen una comprobación horaria de precios satisfactoria.Los periodos sombreados no tienen una comprobación horaria de precios satisfactoria.Los periodos sombreados no tienen una comprobación horaria de precios satisfactoria.Los periodos sombreados no tienen una comprobación horaria de precios satisfactoria.

Basado en los precios de los posibles resultados de este mercado, expresados como probabilidades.

Reglas de resolución

A one-time wealth tax on billionaires has been proposed to potentially appear on California's ballot for the November 3, 2026 general election. You can read more about that here: https://6abc.com/post/california-union-proposes-taxing-billionaires-offset-medicaid-cuts-low-income-people/18066430/ This market will resolve to "Yes" if any proposition containing a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent) passes in the named election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If no qualifying ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot as a proposition to be voted on in the stated election by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved), or if all qualifying propositions/initiatives are removed from the ballot or amended before the election such that the main threshold drops below $1 billion, this market will resolve "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the State of California, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

La misma pregunta en otras plataformas

Ver la pregunta combinada →
Comparables, no idénticas. The published criteria differ in no material way. Polymarket lists a resolution time of June 26, 2026, while PredictFun lists no resolution time; this does not change the underlying question.
  • Polymarketeste mercado

    Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?

    A one-time wealth tax on billionaires has been proposed to potentially appear on California's ballot for the November 3, 2026 general election. You can read more about that here: https://6abc.com/post/california-union-proposes-taxing-billionaires-offset-medicaid-cuts-low-income-people/18066430/ This market will resolve to "Yes" if any proposition containing a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent) passes in the named election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If no qualifying ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot as a proposition to be voted on in the stated election by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved), or if all qualifying propositions/initiatives are removed from the ballot or amended before the election such that the main threshold drops below $1 billion, this market will resolve "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the State of California, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

    875 titulares · 28 comentarios · leído 25 sept, 21:16 UTC

  • PredictFunAbrir →

    Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?

    A one-time wealth tax on billionaires has been proposed to potentially appear on California's ballot for the November 3, 2026 general election. You can read more about that here: https://6abc.com/post/california-union-proposes-taxing-billionaires-offset-medicaid-cuts-low-income-people/18066430/ This market will resolve to "Yes" if any proposition containing a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent) passes in the named election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If no qualifying ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot as a proposition to be voted on in the stated election by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved), or if all qualifying propositions/initiatives are removed from the ballot or amended before the election such that the main threshold drops below $1 billion, this market will resolve "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the State of California, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

    leído 30 sept, 08:17 UTC

Actividad en la plataforma

Titulares875
Valor en posiciones—
Operaciones (24 h)—
Operaciones—
Interés abierto—
Comentarios29

Mejor compra 32 % · mejor venta 33 %

Mayores titulares

  • forcestrut138487155026041533062980821872238023790862908049855818921747904019478875496931
  • drop12638487155026041533062980821872238023790862908049855818921747904019478875496931
  • chungguskhan7330556727383706468662351173040823924339817877848787483691015397124505109410
  • wan1237330556727383706468662351173040823924339817877848787483691015397124505109410
  • truefish3138487155026041533062980821872238023790862908049855818921747904019478875496931

Una instantánea de posiciones, no un historial de resultados.

Operaciones recientes

  • BUY68 %76,9 US$hace 5 días
  • SELL67 %1,9 US$hace 5 días
  • SELL67 %33,5 US$hace 5 días
  • BUY68 %54,4 US$hace 5 días
  • SELL33 %1,7 US$hace 5 días
  • BUY68 %10,5 US$hace 5 días

Debate en Predxy

Inicia sesión para participar en el debate.

Nadie ha dicho nada aquí todavía.

29 comentarios

Los comentarios pertenecen al evento de la plataforma, no a este resultado. Todas las variantes del mismo evento comparten este hilo.
  • bernardbulletin · hace 13 días

    Tax billionaires out of existence

  • betpro3 · hace 30 días

    This is not what this market is about though

  • Geolibertarian · hace 2 meses

    This is underpriced. Never underestimate the stupidity of the average voter.

  • Envious-Concern · hace 2 meses

    Interesting point, the voters will decide and I think we know which way they will lean!

  • AliKhamenei · hace 3 meses

    difference is that the democratic party leaders like Gavin Newsome opposes the billionaire tax, but I doubt he will support the poison pill bill

  • polymark · hace 3 meses

    Could this increase the odds for this market? If im reading the rules of the market correctly, it could resolve Yes because the measure passes during the election but the wealth tax could still not take effect if either of the poison pill initiatives pass. Meaning, those opposing it could direct resources into the making sure the other initiatives pass instead.

  • polymark · hace 3 meses

    Seems as if those opposed to it believe there's a serious chance it could pass: "Two efforts that were crafted to sink the proposed billionaire tax — dubbed poison pills — also qualified for the Nov. 3 ballot, according to the California Secretary of State’s office. One would bar new state taxes on personal property, while the other prohibits any new taxes being exempted from existing state spending rules and to be regularly audited. If the billionaire tax proposal is approved by voters but either of the other proposals receives more votes, the tax measure would be voided."

  • polymark · hace 3 meses

    Sure, but there's been plenty of measures & candidates that won that were not the most well funded. The 'poison pill' initiatives indicate, along with the revealed preferences of certain wealthy people (e.g. Sergey Brin moving out of the state), that there's a serious possibility the wealthy believe it could pass. Newsom & other establishment Dems opposing it does hurt it tho

  • AliKhamenei · hace 3 meses

    support drops drastically for any ballot measure as the election gets closer. Billionaires are going to be dumping millions into ad campaigns

  • AliKhamenei · hace 3 meses

    Can we have a 100% Wealth Tax for Gavin Newsome please?

  • polymark · hace 4 meses

    Polling consistently has 50 to 60% support. Can anyone steelman the case for why they think it won't pass? I get the sense that, given ballot measures aren't compulsory to vote on, there's a much larger number of people who are passionately in favor of this vs the number that are against it. (From the Wikipedia page for Polling data)

  • iutwpfal · hace 5 meses

    Yes but no but irrelevant

  • kkss198x · hace 5 meses

    the fixed assets—factories and infrastructure—remain. As long as engineers and skilled labor stay, production can be restarted. While libertarian theory emphasizes non-aggression.

  • mever · hace 5 meses

    If the rich all leave, will the poor still have job opportunities?

  • Massive-Neon · hace 6 meses

  • thechainsmokers · hace 7 meses

    2 million dollar volume is not gonna cover a billion dollars buddy

  • adonpoli · hace 8 meses

    another pump ?

  • Eia · hace 8 meses

    Since poly is used as "polling" info in news media, trying to influence the polybet to influence the real world vote? Surprising its on the opposite side of the billionaires..

  • Eia · hace 8 meses

    Whats up with these three new accounts hoarding all the yes?

  • nick-turani · hace 9 meses

    this will violate both the california state constitution and the united states constitution: 14th amendment due process, retroactivity, right to travel, armstrong vs US, then 5th amendment takings, forced liquidation. this is free money, no chance this can proceed from both state and federal levels

A las 30 sept, 09:27 UTC