Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

No60 %
Yes41 %

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Volumen 24 h123,7 mil US$
Volumen 7 d770,4 mil US$
Volumen 30 d3,2 M US$
Liquidez390,1 mil US$
Spread1 %
Se resuelve5 oct 2026dentro de 5 días

Historial de probabilidades

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Los periodos sombreados no tienen una comprobación horaria de precios satisfactoria.

Historial de probabilidades0%25%50%75%100%2 sept9 sept16 sept23 sept30 septLos periodos sombreados no tienen una comprobación horaria de precios satisfactoria.Los periodos sombreados no tienen una comprobación horaria de precios satisfactoria.Los periodos sombreados no tienen una comprobación horaria de precios satisfactoria.Los periodos sombreados no tienen una comprobación horaria de precios satisfactoria.Los periodos sombreados no tienen una comprobación horaria de precios satisfactoria.Los periodos sombreados no tienen una comprobación horaria de precios satisfactoria.Los periodos sombreados no tienen una comprobación horaria de precios satisfactoria.Los periodos sombreados no tienen una comprobación horaria de precios satisfactoria.Los periodos sombreados no tienen una comprobación horaria de precios satisfactoria.Los periodos sombreados no tienen una comprobación horaria de precios satisfactoria.Los periodos sombreados no tienen una comprobación horaria de precios satisfactoria.Los periodos sombreados no tienen una comprobación horaria de precios satisfactoria.Los periodos sombreados no tienen una comprobación horaria de precios satisfactoria.Los periodos sombreados no tienen una comprobación horaria de precios satisfactoria.Los periodos sombreados no tienen una comprobación horaria de precios satisfactoria.Los periodos sombreados no tienen una comprobación horaria de precios satisfactoria.Los periodos sombreados no tienen una comprobación horaria de precios satisfactoria.Los periodos sombreados no tienen una comprobación horaria de precios satisfactoria.Los periodos sombreados no tienen una comprobación horaria de precios satisfactoria.Los periodos sombreados no tienen una comprobación horaria de precios satisfactoria.Los periodos sombreados no tienen una comprobación horaria de precios satisfactoria.Los periodos sombreados no tienen una comprobación horaria de precios satisfactoria.Los periodos sombreados no tienen una comprobación horaria de precios satisfactoria.Los periodos sombreados no tienen una comprobación horaria de precios satisfactoria.Los periodos sombreados no tienen una comprobación horaria de precios satisfactoria.Los periodos sombreados no tienen una comprobación horaria de precios satisfactoria.Los periodos sombreados no tienen una comprobación horaria de precios satisfactoria.Los periodos sombreados no tienen una comprobación horaria de precios satisfactoria.Los periodos sombreados no tienen una comprobación horaria de precios satisfactoria.Los periodos sombreados no tienen una comprobación horaria de precios satisfactoria.

Basado en los precios de los posibles resultados de este mercado, expresados como probabilidades.

Reglas de resolución

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

La misma pregunta en otras plataformas

Ver la pregunta combinada →
Comparables, no idénticas. PredictFun and Polymarket resolve an unknown result to “Other,” while Myriad resolves all outcomes to “No” if the result remains unknown and includes additional cancellation/withdrawal rules. All use credible reporting and Brazil’s TSE for resolving ambiguity; the differing settlement timing does not change the question.
  • PredictFunAbrir →

    Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

    A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

    leído 30 sept, 12:03 UTC

  • Polymarketeste mercado

    Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

    A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

    5,7 mil titulares · 20,2 mil comentarios · leído 27 sept, 01:44 UTC

  • MyriadAbrir →

    Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

    ### **Market Dates:** - **Market Period:** From the publication date until June 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. - **Market Close:** June 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. - **Resolution Time:** Upon official confirmation of the winning candidate. ### **Resolution Criteria:** - This market will resolve to the candidate who is officially declared the winner of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election. - Resolves to "**Yes**" for the candidate who is officially declared the winner. - Resolves to "**No**" for all other listed candidates. - This market includes any potential second-round runoff. - If a listed candidate withdraws, is disqualified, or otherwise does not appear on the final ballot before voting begins, that candidate's outcome will resolve to "No", unless they are nevertheless officially declared the winner before resolution occurs. ### **Resolution Details:** - If the result of this election is not known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No" for all outcomes. ### **Resolution Sources** - This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. - In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official results published by Brazil's Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE). ### **Cancellation Conditions:** - Any circumstance that makes the outcome impossible to determine using the specified criteria. If the market is cancelled, participants can claim their stakes at the then-current market value of their shares, which could result in a profit or a loss depending on the price of those shares at cancellation.

    leído 30 sept, 12:24 UTC

Otras variantes de este evento

MercadoPlataformaPrecioEstado
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Polymarket100 % NoAbierto
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Polymarket100 % NoAbierto
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Polymarket100 % NoAbierto
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Polymarket100 % NoAbierto
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Polymarket100 % NoAbierto
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Polymarket100 % NoAbierto
Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Polymarket100 % NoAbierto
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Polymarket100 % NoAbierto
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Polymarket60 % YesAbierto
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Polymarket100 % NoAbierto
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Polymarket100 % NoAbierto
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Polymarket100 % NoAbierto
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Polymarket100 % NoAbierto
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Polymarket100 % NoAbierto
Will Augusto Cury win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Polymarket100 % NoAbierto
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Polymarket100 % NoAbierto
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Polymarket100 % NoAbierto
Will Pablo Marçal win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Polymarket100 % NoAbierto

Actividad en la plataforma

Titulares5,7 mil
Valor en posiciones—
Operaciones (24 h)—
Operaciones—
Interés abierto—
Comentarios11,6 mil

Mejor compra 43 % · mejor venta 44 %

Mayores titulares

  • 0xa5ef39c3d3e10d0b270233af41cac69796b1296679191939610100241429039499950443680906623179487184628479206155805558220344190
  • unknwnfnd30630994248667897740988010928640156931882346081873066002335460180076741328029
  • TheReturnOfDarthMaul30630994248667897740988010928640156931882346081873066002335460180076741328029
  • ScottyNooo30630994248667897740988010928640156931882346081873066002335460180076741328029
  • eventalpha2630630994248667897740988010928640156931882346081873066002335460180076741328029

Una instantánea de posiciones, no un historial de resultados.

Operaciones recientes

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  • BUY44 %5 US$hace 3 días
  • BUY57 %4,9 US$hace 3 días
  • BUY44 %4 US$hace 3 días
  • BUY44 %8,8 US$hace 3 días

Debate en Predxy

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Nadie ha dicho nada aquí todavía.

11.571 comentarios

Los comentarios pertenecen al evento de la plataforma, no a este resultado. Todas las variantes del mismo evento comparten este hilo.
  • Mortified-Headline · hace 33 minutos

  • FarbusBoIsonaro22 · hace 34 minutos

    Atualmente em votos válidos vou chutar que está 44 x 40 pro Loola no 1° turno, 2pp de margem de erro.

  • DNX-based · hace 35 minutos

    Total Bolsonaro victory

  • LHGZ · hace 35 minutos

    Acho que é impossível ser pior que o Lula meu camarada

  • DNX-based · hace 36 minutos

    Total Lula death

  • FarbusBoIsonaro22 · hace 36 minutos

    Estão ignorando os números das pesquisas, BATEU O DESESPERO KKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKK

  • FellipeFB22 · hace 37 minutos

    Derreta Lula maldito

  • FarbusBoIsonaro22 · hace 39 minutos

    Estou ciente, amigo. Segundo turno será uma eleição totalmente diferente, muitos vermelhos entrarão em depressão e o jeito será apelar pro Dino dar um golpe. Galera ainda entendeu o que está acontecendo. 👇️ Pesquisa Ideia em 29 de setembro de 2022: 1° Turno - Lula 47 Bolsonaro 37 2° Turno - Lula 52 Bolsonaro 41

  • halostryx · hace 40 minutos

    joga quem quer quem é putinha de querer o papai estado regulando a vida dos outros tem 2 dígitos de QI

  • LHGZ · hace 41 minutos

    Não acontecerá

  • halostryx · hace 41 minutos

    TEM QUE SER TOO BIG TO RIG VAMO CARALHO 22

  • halostryx · hace 42 minutos

    ele nao esta fazendo campanha no estado dele, mal esta fazendo campanha

  • Lula.desistiu · hace 42 minutos

    DERRETA LULA!!!!

  • LHGZ · hace 43 minutos

    Calma calabreso, ninguém do partido missão tá querendo esse teu C#zinho bolsopetista não, rlx

  • Lula.desistiu · hace 44 minutos

    O

  • LHGZ · hace 45 minutos

    Achar que o Kim Kataguiri não ganha é muita inocência

  • Issesterfesson · hace 47 minutos

    Calma amigo! Ta nervoso? Percebi que está postando com muita raiva. O que houve?

  • armnas · hace 56 minutos

    15 milhões? Chuto pelo menos 20 milhões de votos

  • Terryvel22 · hace 58 minutos

    VC acha que lula agrega 12 milhões de votos do primeiro para o segundo turno , na passada agregou 3.....kkkkkk,estão de piada esse instituto.....kkkkkk

  • Petty-Impala · hace 58 minutos

    Lula em 2022 tava queimado, tinha acabado de sair da cadeia e ainda ganhou do MITO. É muita inocência achar que o Lula está mais fraco do que em 2022. O choque de realidade para os bolsonaristas será brutal.

A las 30 sept, 12:29 UTC