Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?
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This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Kostyantynivka, Donetsk Oblast, (48.528896° N, 37.702514° E) by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Kostyantynivka will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the resolution date, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify. The territory of the municipality is shaded in light grey and is distinguished from bordering municipalities with a darker grey line. If all area within the municipality is shaded in red, however, the shading does not precisely match up with the border such that there is a tiny amount of grey along the border of the city, this will still qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Once Russia captures the entirety of the specified area, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/p9N3w6yRVfjx6cuZ8 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Celelalte variante ale acestui eveniment
O variantă citită singură induce în eroare; celelalte sunt alături.| Piață | Platformă | Preț | Stare |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by September 30, 2026? | Polymarket | 100 % No | Deschisă |
| Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by October 31, 2026? | Polymarket | 96 % No | Deschisă |
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Citit de la platformă ieriCel mai bun bid 23 % · cel mai bun ask 24 %
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64 de comentarii
Din discuția proprie a Polymarket- NotSoTalkingMuppet · alaltăieri
The delay on declaring shit one way or another is insane, almost ww2 kind of "look everything is fine in a town captured 2 months ago, nothing to see here"
- pink.impala · alaltăieri
Kurwa kurwa wham bham beating that MF good!
- pink.impala · alaltăieri
WATCH: Passenger Beats Ukrainian Taxi Driver Over Music in Poland ⬆️According to local media, the passenger became angry because the Ukrainian refugee driver was listening to Ukrainian songs throughout the ride. 🔘 The passenger then beat the taxi driver and told him to ‘go to war.’
- Loving-Crewmember · acum 10 zile
it's going to be ggwp after the election, and especially if they push in frontline the anti-drone system on tanks. jet powered drones, 300k mobilization, antidrone system, ukraine failing to keep up with the air-defense, artillery constantly raining upon ukrainian positions, it's going to be a tough winter and arrows going to move quite a bit.
- anotherpatrick · acum 29 de zile
why did u sell it bro? it works even until next year
- anotherpatrick · luna trecută
@elPolloLoco appreciate ur contribution
- abdoohl · luna trecută
Shitty Project Ukraine with them entitled ukros stop demanding money! nobody likes you!
- abdoohl · luna trecută
They runnin out of men them corrupt ukrainian crooks HAHAHAHAHA
- abdoohl · luna trecută
In Kyiv, the TCC (territorial recruitment) has been very active in recent months, even in busier areas, which they previously largely avoided due to the risk of facing resistance from the public. More checkpoints are being installed at main streets, arterial roads, and bridges, which block all traffic going both ways, preventing people from moving from the eastern bank to the western bank. Mobile checkpoints are installed for short periods of time (between tens of minutes to several hours) before changing locations to throw off online maps tracking their activity. The domains of these online maps are also periodically blacklisted to support the TCC's operations.
- 10to5 · luna trecută
great post
- smaIIfish · acum 2 luni
Cope final boss
- BetsAhead · acum 2 luni
ISW is very biased. Its connection to former U.S. diplomat Victoria Nuland is clear. The ISW was founded by Kimberly Kagan, a military historian. She is married to Frederick Kagan, whose brother is Robert Kagan. Robert Kagan is married to Victoria Nuland. Critics have pointed out this family connection, noting that Victoria Nuland was a senior U.S. diplomat who shaped policy on Ukraine and Europe. It has funding from the defence industry, including General Dynamics, Raytheon, CACI, and DynCorp
- Loving-Crewmember · acum 2 luni
Huliaipole was captured long before DeepState or ISW reported it, however, they took their sweet ass time to declare it captured. DeepState marked it as captured 3 weeks before ISW did.
- smaIIfish · acum 2 luni
If you genuinely believe that then you are actually cooked. It will be until at least December before there's a chance.
- Kixn · acum 2 luni
Konstyantynivka should be long captured by then and Russia at least 10km past it
- smaIIfish · acum 2 luni
Cope
- smaIIfish · acum 2 luni
insane odds for NO sep 30
- JoeBlack01 · acum 2 luni
want test coments
- JoeBlack01 · acum 2 luni
test
- Kixn · acum 2 luni
they will do something like they did for Huliaipole and shade the whole area red except for an empty destroyed house in the corner of the village
La 29 sept., 22:07 UTC