Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?
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This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data. Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc. If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies. This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
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Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?
This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data. Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc. If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies. This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
576 deținători · 30 comentarii · citit 29 sept., 23:23 UTC
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Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?
This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data. Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc. If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies. This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
citit 29 sept., 22:41 UTC
Celelalte variante ale acestui eveniment
O variantă citită singură induce în eroare; celelalte sunt alături.| Piață | Platformă | Preț | Stare |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will 2026 be the fifth-hottest year on record? | Polymarket | 100 % No | Deschisă |
| Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record? | Polymarket | 70 % No | Deschisă |
| Will 2026 be the third-hottest year on record? | Polymarket | 100 % No | Deschisă |
| Will 2026 be the fourth-hottest year on record? | Polymarket | 100 % No | Deschisă |
| Will 2026 rank as the sixth-hottest year on record or lower? | Polymarket | 100 % No | Deschisă |
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26 de comentarii
Din discuția proprie a Polymarket- polmar001 · alaltăieri
nino who? he's not coming
- semantics · acum 3 zile
El Niño is coming…
- xiaodouzi · acum 6 zile
Temperature of where? It’s not hot at all this year in China. So if China is taken into consideration, it probably ranks 6th or lower.
- igliberg · acum 3 luni
i have heard that France is "burining"
- Famous-Fallacy · acum 3 luni
Hansen et all believe this year will be number 1.
- exmateriae · acum 3 luni
Berkeley now gives 2.5% to "1"
- Short-Tunic · acum 3 luni
6 or lower
- Short-Tunic · acum 3 luni
6
- exmateriae · acum 4 luni
Berkeley Earth March 2026 Temperature Update gives a 5% chance of 2026 being the warmest year on record. "1" is way too high.
- Academic-Forecast · acum 4 luni
It wasn't his simple question, but your revealing answer. Now I see it, thanks :D
- studmuffin6969 · acum 4 luni
in the US half the country does't believe in thermometers.
- Climatologist · acum 5 luni
Seems fairly priced
- Famous-Fallacy · acum 5 luni
Hansen et all predicting 2026 to be the hottest year with 0.06 degrees margin. [link removed]
- Pasun4ik · acum 7 luni
haaaa
- DYANA41800 · acum 7 luni
ArmageddonRewardsBilly Hi I tried very hard but unfortunately I couldn't contact you.
- Gennedy · acum 8 luni
I agree, it makes no sense at all.
- Eia · acum 9 luni
Why not delete your comment and trade on it yourself? 2026 is a long year, plenty of fish around. Some dont even research or read comments like the average shark comment above 😅 plz delete so we get better values 🙏
- Zwicky · acum 9 luni
Ok, now I understand. Thanks.
- TESTENAOMEXA · acum 9 luni
My friend, would you mind sharing where you collect the data about this?
- Roro22 · acum 9 luni
Becase this year and 2023 will differ only by a slight margin and are both below the warmest year 2024, so its a low probability 2026 lands inbetween them and becomes third. Cheers!
La 30 sept., 02:22 UTC