PolymarketOffen

Will the Green Party (MP) be in the next Swedish government?

Yes64 %

No37 %

Preis geprüft am 29. Sept., 22:12 UTC

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24h-Volumen930,4 $

7-Tage-Volumen6688,6 $

30-Tage-Volumen22.601,6 $

Liquidität25.931,5 $

Spread1 %

Entscheidet sich1. Feb. 2027in 4 Monaten

Wahrscheinlichkeitsverlauf

Marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeiten · Gesamter aufgezeichneter Verlauf

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Schattierte Zeiträume haben keine erfolgreiche stündliche Preisprüfung.

Basierend auf den Preisen der möglichen Ergebnisse dieses Marktes, ausgedrückt als Wahrscheinlichkeiten.

Entscheidungsregeln

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first Swedish government formed after the 2026 Swedish parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may resolve once the composition of the first Swedish government following the 2026 parliamentary elections is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office. A party will only be considered part of the coalition if it provides at least one cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a cabinet post will not qualify. If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Government of Sweden and the Riksdag.

Weitere Ausprägungen dieses Ereignisses

Eine Ausprägung allein führt in die Irre; die anderen stehen daneben.

Markt	Plattform	Preis	24h-Volumen	Liquidität	Geplantes Ende	Status
Will the Citizens' Coalition (MED) be in the next Swedish government?	Polymarket	99 % No	—	—	—	Offen
Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) be in the next Swedish government?	Polymarket	75 % Yes	2043,7 $	—	—	Offen
Will the Christian Democrats (KD) be in the next Swedish government?	Polymarket	76 % No	1471,6 $	—	—	Offen
Will the Left Party (V) be in the next Swedish government?	Polymarket	85 % No	993,3 $	—	—	Offen
Will the Moderate Party (M) be in the next Swedish government?	Polymarket	76 % No	674 $	—	—	Offen
Will the Liberals (L) be in the next Swedish government?	Polymarket	77 % No	388,2 $	—	—	Offen
Will the Centre Party (C) be in the next Swedish government?	Polymarket	55 % No	215,1 $	—	—	Offen
Will the Sweden Democrats (SD) be in the next Swedish government?	Polymarket	92 % No	10,8 $	—	—	Offen

Aktivität auf der Plattform

Von der Plattform gelesen vor 8 Tagen

Halter65

Gehaltener Wert—

Trades (24h)—

Trades—

Offene Positionen—

Kommentare15

Bestes Gebot 70 % · bester Brief 72 %

Größte Halter

Tattered-Ephyra71739670959021872989217775754756666028185844063816337161629533473089751267924
Quick-Witted-Appetiser27416031209241716746825875321393726996202314059858815986649661646099485322159
vinii71739670959021872989217775754756666028185844063816337161629533473089751267924
Dr.PNL27416031209241716746825875321393726996202314059858815986649661646099485322159
Eire27416031209241716746825875321393726996202314059858815986649661646099485322159

Eine Momentaufnahme der Positionen, keine Erfolgsbilanz.

Letzte Trades

SELL28 %0,4 $vor 8 Tagen
SELL29 %5,8 $vor 8 Tagen
SELL29 %40,3 $vor 8 Tagen
BUY30 %13,5 $vor 8 Tagen
BUY30 %17,4 $vor 8 Tagen
BUY30 %6,4 $vor 8 Tagen

Diskussion auf Predxy

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15 Kommentare

Aus dem eigenen Thread von Polymarket

Kommentare gehören zum Ereignis der Plattform, nicht zu diesem Ausgang. Jede Ausprägung desselben Ereignisses teilt diesen Thread.

vinii · vorgestern
TheSwedishWolf · vor 3 Tagen
TheSwedishWolf · vor 3 Tagen
Not after the latest scandals. Most likely they will be outside the government this election.
vinii · vor 4 Tagen
V has the cards if they refuse is over
vinii · vor 4 Tagen
Im betting or a goverment with V or snap elections/ no deal by january 31
vinii · vor 4 Tagen
V in the goverment or snap elections.
muppet-master · vor 4 Tagen
Ok, I did not know that, I think they could/should demand more being kingmaker/vågmästare. V won't agree to that. Their members voted to not let a S government through without getting any V ministers. I think that V leadership can't break that since it would be to piss their members in their faces.
OllonPiercing · vor 4 Tagen
The center party has been clear about them being willing to allow an S or S + MP coalition. If V actually agrees on not being in government, they might demand C not being in it either, which C might agree to.
muppet-master · vor 4 Tagen
Spoiler: The Center Party (C) is the Kkngmaker/vågmästare party. If C dont get into S governent then they just switch to M government. 100% guaranteed C will be in goverment.
Profitable-Bartender · vor 6 Tagen
Why yuo put no on social demokrats but yes on the left party?
vinii · vor 8 Tagen
Smart
OllonPiercing · vor 8 Tagen
🤫
TheSwedishWolf · vor 8 Tagen
This market looks good on the outside. But if you look at the facts the market require the listed party to have a government by 31th of January of 2027. Which is in 133 days it took the old socialdemokrats government in 2018 134 days. This situation is also more complex.
OllonPiercing · vor 10 Tagen
why
vinii · vor 11 Tagen
I want more No

Stand 29. Sept., 22:44 UTC