PolymarketOffen

Will the Sweden Democrats (SD) be in the next Swedish government?

No92 %

Yes8 %

Preis geprüft am 29. Sept., 22:12 UTC

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24h-Volumen10,8 $

7-Tage-Volumen2569,2 $

30-Tage-Volumen17.919 $

Liquidität14.233,6 $

Spread2 %

Entscheidet sich1. Feb. 2027in 4 Monaten

Wahrscheinlichkeitsverlauf

Marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeiten · Gesamter aufgezeichneter Verlauf

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Schattierte Zeiträume haben keine erfolgreiche stündliche Preisprüfung.

Basierend auf den Preisen der möglichen Ergebnisse dieses Marktes, ausgedrückt als Wahrscheinlichkeiten.

Entscheidungsregeln

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first Swedish government formed after the 2026 Swedish parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may resolve once the composition of the first Swedish government following the 2026 parliamentary elections is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office. A party will only be considered part of the coalition if it provides at least one cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a cabinet post will not qualify. If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Government of Sweden and the Riksdag.

Weitere Ausprägungen dieses Ereignisses

Eine Ausprägung allein führt in die Irre; die anderen stehen daneben.

Markt	Plattform	Preis	24h-Volumen	Liquidität	Geplantes Ende	Status
Will the Citizens' Coalition (MED) be in the next Swedish government?	Polymarket	99 % No	—	—	—	Offen
Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) be in the next Swedish government?	Polymarket	75 % Yes	2043,7 $	—	—	Offen
Will the Christian Democrats (KD) be in the next Swedish government?	Polymarket	76 % No	1471,6 $	—	—	Offen
Will the Left Party (V) be in the next Swedish government?	Polymarket	85 % No	993,3 $	—	—	Offen
Will the Green Party (MP) be in the next Swedish government?	Polymarket	64 % Yes	930,4 $	—	—	Offen
Will the Moderate Party (M) be in the next Swedish government?	Polymarket	76 % No	674 $	—	—	Offen
Will the Liberals (L) be in the next Swedish government?	Polymarket	77 % No	388,2 $	—	—	Offen
Will the Centre Party (C) be in the next Swedish government?	Polymarket	55 % No	215,1 $	—	—	Offen

Aktivität auf der Plattform

Von der Plattform gelesen vorgestern

Halter72

Gehaltener Wert—

Trades (24h)—

Trades—

Offene Positionen—

Kommentare15

Bestes Gebot 3 % · bester Brief 4 %

Größte Halter

pagliacci491748692885165450731942273226989488959926055476270238835199746695937385671056
Seutervoinen91748692885165450731942273226989488959926055476270238835199746695937385671056
JGripen83923115933398753302562247342296348108443029918566826666198196593339961908328
GollumGekko91748692885165450731942273226989488959926055476270238835199746695937385671056
Cbor83923115933398753302562247342296348108443029918566826666198196593339961908328

Eine Momentaufnahme der Positionen, keine Erfolgsbilanz.

Letzte Trades

BUY97 %10 $vorgestern
BUY4 %2 $vor 3 Tagen
SELL3 %0,6 $vor 4 Tagen
SELL3 %0,6 $vor 4 Tagen
BUY97 %19,4 $vor 4 Tagen
BUY97 %19,4 $vor 4 Tagen

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15 Kommentare

Aus dem eigenen Thread von Polymarket

Kommentare gehören zum Ereignis der Plattform, nicht zu diesem Ausgang. Jede Ausprägung desselben Ereignisses teilt diesen Thread.

vinii · vorgestern
TheSwedishWolf · vor 3 Tagen
TheSwedishWolf · vor 3 Tagen
Not after the latest scandals. Most likely they will be outside the government this election.
vinii · vor 4 Tagen
V has the cards if they refuse is over
vinii · vor 4 Tagen
Im betting or a goverment with V or snap elections/ no deal by january 31
vinii · vor 4 Tagen
V in the goverment or snap elections.
muppet-master · vor 4 Tagen
Ok, I did not know that, I think they could/should demand more being kingmaker/vågmästare. V won't agree to that. Their members voted to not let a S government through without getting any V ministers. I think that V leadership can't break that since it would be to piss their members in their faces.
OllonPiercing · vor 4 Tagen
The center party has been clear about them being willing to allow an S or S + MP coalition. If V actually agrees on not being in government, they might demand C not being in it either, which C might agree to.
muppet-master · vor 4 Tagen
Spoiler: The Center Party (C) is the Kkngmaker/vågmästare party. If C dont get into S governent then they just switch to M government. 100% guaranteed C will be in goverment.
Profitable-Bartender · vor 6 Tagen
Why yuo put no on social demokrats but yes on the left party?
vinii · vor 8 Tagen
Smart
OllonPiercing · vor 8 Tagen
🤫
TheSwedishWolf · vor 8 Tagen
This market looks good on the outside. But if you look at the facts the market require the listed party to have a government by 31th of January of 2027. Which is in 133 days it took the old socialdemokrats government in 2018 134 days. This situation is also more complex.
OllonPiercing · vor 10 Tagen
why
vinii · vor 11 Tagen
I want more No

Stand 29. Sept., 23:01 UTC