Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before November 1, 2026? Before Nov 1, 2026
Din ediția Azi · 22 sept. 2026
This market asks whether the IMF PortWatch 7-day moving average of commercial transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz will exceed 60 on any published date before November 1, 2026. The threshold is substantially below the estimated 2025 average of about 85 daily transits, but still far above recent readings: a secondary tracker citing the PortWatch-republished series recorded a 7-day average of 4.43 on August 9. PortWatch counts AIS-detected vessels in both directions and typically publishes with a three-to-five-day lag; vessels with disabled or spoofed AIS may be missed. [1]
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- 1. Methodology · Hormuz Transit Watch ↗ straitmonitor.com
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1 platformă- KalshiWill the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before November 1, 2026? Before Nov 1, 202697 % No79,8 K USD volum 24hReguli de decizie →Setează-ți țara ca să vezi unde poți tranzacționa.Setează-ți țara →
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