NATO x Russia military clash by November 30, 2026?
Preț verificat la
Istoricul probabilităților
Probabilități implicite ale pieței · Tot istoricul înregistratTrage pentru a muta · ciupește sau ⌘/Ctrl+derulare pentru zoom
Perioadele umbrite nu au o verificare orară reușită a prețurilor.
Pe baza prețurilor rezultatelor posibile ale acestei piețe, exprimate ca probabilități.
Reguli de decizie
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of a NATO country and Russia between market creation and November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between NATO and Russian military forces. Non-violent actions, such as airspace violations, firing of warning shots (such as the June, 2021 Black Sea Confrontations between Russian forces and HMS Defender), or cyberattacks will not qualify. Interception of missiles or other one-way attack or loitering munitions (e.g. Shahed drones) which are targeting a 3rd party other than the listed countries or their respective forces will not alone qualify. Shooting down UAVs which are not munitions (e.g. MQ-9, Orlan 10, Orion, Bayraktar TB2, etc.) will qualify. Intentional physical collisions, including aerial interceptions and naval ramming without the direct use of weaponry, such as the 2023 Black Sea incident—where a Russian Su-27 damaged a U.S. MQ-9 Reaper drone's propeller, leading to its crash— will not qualify regardless of damage. Military contractors will qualify only if confirmed to be operating under the direct command or coordination of the respective state’s armed forces (e.g. the Battle of Khasham would not qualify). The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Celelalte variante ale acestui eveniment
O variantă citită singură induce în eroare; celelalte sunt alături.| Piață | Platformă | Preț | Stare |
|---|---|---|---|
| NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026? | Polymarket | 98 % No | Deschisă |
| NATO x Russia military clash by November 15, 2026? | Polymarket | 94 % No | Deschisă |
| NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | Polymarket | 82 % No | Deschisă |
Activitatea platformei
Citit de la platformă minutul acestaDiscuție pe Predxy
Ce cred cititorii Predxy despre această piață. Toți pot citi; cititorii autentificați pot scrie. Discuția platformei, dacă există, este în caseta de mai jos.Autentifică-te ca să participi la discuție.
Nimeni nu a spus încă nimic aici.
268 de comentarii
Din discuția proprie a Polymarket- Rex416 · acum 10 zile
SaturnStormCube reveal yourself dm me
- filedescript0r · acum 10 zile
Нет, пыпа не сможет воевать с НАТО
- 658658 · acum 11 zile
A border alert doesn't establish a clash
- Kamala2024 · acum 12 zile
A stray incident could create serious ambiguity
- CW1975 · acum 14 zile
Bloomberg: poland-probes-possible-attack-planned-on-premier-defense-chief // tensions dont reduce ...
- nickthechopper · acum 17 zile
It was not an attack on a NATO military. The target was a civilian grain carrier
- johnsic · acum 18 zile
Armed men from Belarus crossed into Latvia A group of masked men attempted to force around 20 illegal migrants across the border. The men were armed and threatened Latvian troops. Latvia’s armed forces said the incident was particularly demonstrative and aggressive compared with many previous provocations. Several hours later, the men managed to enter EU territory, damaged an electrical distribution box and stole surveillance cameras before returning to Belarus, Interior Minister Jānis Dombrava said.
- guacamole.nz · acum 18 zile
The market is about Russia accidentally hitting NATO ground. That's always a realistic, but minor risk.
- CondeDeBelloch · acum 19 zile
russia just attacked two ships traveling from Romania (a NATO member) to Turkey (a NATO member) and, conversely, from Turkey (a NATO member) to Romania (a NATO member). They were attacked in the exclusive economic zone of Bulgaria (a NATO member). Both ships are owned by Turkish (NATO member) companies. Time to pay.
- johnsic · acum 19 zile
This is a major escalation by Russia. Russia is sinking merchant ships from NATO countries in the exclusive economic zones of NATO countries. Neither vessel had made a recent port of call in Ukraine. One ship was sailing to Turkey from Romania, and the other was sailing to Turkey from Egypt.
- Mr.Frog🐸 · acum 19 zile
Drones attacked two commercial vessels near the coast of Bulgaria: one sank, and the other caught fire, — BGNEWS Bulgarian sailors are conducting a large-scale rescue operation in the Black Sea waters east of Cape Saint Athanasius and the town of Byala following the UAV attack. This is the first attack on vessels in Bulgaria's exclusive economic zone.
- jvro · acum 19 zile
Yes, but that’s what people think. IMO it’s not gonna happen anytime soon
- Raskell · acum 20 de zile
No it wouldn't unless it was a military ship
- johnsic · acum 20 de zile
A Turkish cargo ship carrying grain has just been hit 20 nautical miles off the coast of Romania in the Black Sea by a drone 13 of the crew are missing. If its Russian drone this might qualify.
- usernameusername22 · acum 22 de zile
- jvro · acum 22 de zile
Dude, good luck losing money 🤠
- guacamole.nz · acum 22 de zile
The way I see it, October market has about a 12% chance of happening
- jvro · acum 23 de zile
Remember, nothing ever happens. Market rules are tricky, but still has low change of YES.
- NotaJoe · acum 25 de zile
Ukraine is the only country putin wants to conquer, also putin
- octoppp · acum 29 de zile
yep its scam
La 25 oct., 08:20 UTC