Chinese AI Model Ranked #1? — By December 31, 2026

This market will settle to Yes if any Chinese company has the #1 ranked AI model on the Arena AI Text Arena leaderboard at any point between Contract Issuance and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (Style Control Off). Outcome sourced from Arena AI. The #1 ranking is determined by the "Rank" column of the Arena AI Text Arena leaderboard, with Style Control toggled off (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control). If multiple models from different companies are tied for rank #1, the model with the highest Score will be considered the #1-ranked model (including any underlying, unrounded values reflected in the data below the leaderboard). If a tie remains, the company whose name comes first in alphabetical order will be considered the #1 ranked company. Chinese companies include but are not limited to Alibaba, ByteDance, Baidu, Moonshot, Z.ai, DeepSeek, Meituan, Xiaomi, StepFun, Tencent, and MiniMax.