Will Coalition avenir Québec (CAQ) finish 5th in the 2026 Quebec general election?

If Équipe Christine Fréchette - Coalition avenir Québec finishes in 5th place in the 2026 Quebec general election according to the certified results, then the market resolves to Yes. Ranking is determined by the specified counting method: For plurality voting: rank is based on province-wide certified valid-vote count or percentage, not seats won In case of exact ties, markets resolve proportionally (1/number of tied entities), rounded down. If no listed party is tied for fifth and an unlisted party finishes fifth, every named market resolves NO. Parties that withdraw or are disqualified after the filing deadline but remain on the ballot are ranked based on votes received. Resolution uses the final certified result from Élections Québec, not the preliminary election-night count.