Will Nikolajus Lebedevičius win the 2026 Northern Nalšia district by-election?

An early election for a member of the Seimas of the Republic of Lithuania in the single-member Northern Nalšia constituency (No. 52) is scheduled to take place on November 8, 2026. The by-election was triggered by the death of the incumbent member, Jevgenij Šuklin, on May 28, 2026. This market will resolve to the candidate who wins the election in the Northern Nalšia constituency. If no candidate receives the required share of the vote in the first round, this market will resolve according to the result of the second round. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by May 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official results as reported by the Central Electoral Commission of the Republic of Lithuania (Vyriausioji rinkimų komisija, https://www.vrk.lt/).