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Will Democrats sweep the 2026 U.S. Midterm Elections?

Yes63 %
No37 %

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Istoricul probabilităților0%25%50%75%100%21 sept.23 sept.25 sept.27 sept.29 sept.

Pe baza prețurilor rezultatelor posibile ale acestei piețe, exprimate ca probabilități.

Reguli de decizie

## **Market Dates:** - **Market Period:** From the publication date until November 3, 2026 at 1:00 AM UTC. - **Market Close:** November 3, 2026 at 1:00 AM UTC. - **Resolution Time:** The outcome will be determined after Market Close, once the 2026 US Midterm Elections results are officially confirmed by the market resolution sources. ## **Resolution Criteria:** - Resolves to **“Yes”** if the Democratic Party controls **both the U.S. House of Representatives and the U.S. Senate** following the 2026 United States midterm elections. - Resolves to **“No”** if the Democratic Party does not control both chambers after the elections. ## **Resolution Criteria:** - For the purposes of this market, a “Democratic sweep” means the Democratic Party controls both the U.S. House of Representatives and the U.S. Senate following the election. - A party will be considered to have control of the House of Representatives if it wins a majority of voting seats. - A party will be considered to have control of the Senate if it holds: - More than half of the voting Senate seats, or - Half of the seats plus the Vice President, who can cast tie-breaking votes. - A candidate’s party affiliation will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation at the time the election results are conclusively called by the resolution sources. - Candidates without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican Parties will be considered aligned with the party they most recently expressed intent to caucus with at the time results are finalized. - If control of the House remains ambiguous, the market will resolve according to the party affiliation of the first Speaker of the U.S. House selected following the 2026 midterm elections. - If control of the Senate remains ambiguous, the market will resolve according to the party affiliation of the first Senate Majority Leader selected following the elections. ## **Resolution Details:** - This market will resolve once all the following sources have conclusively called winners determining control of the House and Senate. - [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/) - [Associated Press](https://apnews.com/) - [Fox News](https://www.foxnews.com/) - If the three sources **do not reach consensus**, this market will resolve according to the **official certification of election results**. ## **Cancellation (Invalidity) Conditions** - The 2026 U.S. midterm elections are not held. - Determining control of Congress becomes impossible due to extraordinary circumstances preventing certification or recognition of results. - Myriad Markets undergoes a major technical or contractual change requiring cancellation of active markets. If canceled, participants may claim their stakes at the market value of their open positions at the time of cancellation.

Sursăhttps://apnews.com

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La 29 sept., 21:52 UTC