Will AfD receive at least 41% of valid second votes in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary election?

If the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimmen) received by AfD in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary election is 41% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes. The percentage is (second votes received by the party ÷ total valid second votes cast) × 100, rounded to two decimal places. Invalid, spoiled, or rejected ballots are excluded from numerator and denominator. Except as provided in the Fully-Conducted Elections and Accelerated Resolution provisions, use certified/official results; unofficial results or media declarations may be used only as those provisions allow. If voting is cancelled, suspended, or postponed before it concludes, or no results (certified or unofficial as reported by the Source Agencies) are available by expiration, resolve No, subject to those provisions. If a recount changes the certified percentage before expiration, use the most recent certified percentage.