Will Jerome Powell leave Member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Aug 1, 2026? Before Oct 1, 2026

If Jerome Powell has either officially announced their intention to leave as Member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System or has actually left as Member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Oct 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. An acknowledgment that Jerome Powell will leave office due solely to the scheduled expiration of his legally mandated term limit does not resolve to Yes. The market resolves to Yes upon either an official announcement of departure or actual departure from office. An announcement must be made by the person themselves, their authorized representative, or the governing body of the office and reported by at least one Source Agency. Announcements of leaving more than one year from the statement do not resolve the market to Yes. Leaving office includes resignation, termination, removal, impeachment and removal, recall, or term expiration without renewal. Temporary absences such as medical leave, suspension with possibility of return, or delegation of duties while retaining office do NOT qualify. Death does NOT satisfy the Payout Criterion. Forced departures satisfy the criterion even without prior announcement.