Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?
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Reguli de decizie
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Celelalte variante ale acestui eveniment
O variantă citită singură induce în eroare; celelalte sunt alături.| Piață | Platformă | Preț | Stare |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 15? | Polymarket | 100 % No | Deschisă |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? | Polymarket | 100 % No | Deschisă |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31? | Polymarket | 83 % No | Deschisă |
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Citit de la platformă acum 4 zileCel mai bun bid 7 % · cel mai bun ask 9 %
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275 de comentarii
Din discuția proprie a Polymarket- Tezcatlipoca · acum 5 zile
There was some assumption that if the houthis took over bab they would immediately shut it down and traffic would drop to almost zero. It’s still open and working relatively normally
- zthunderfury · acum 7 zile
Imagine thinking random bulk craft going through suez being the same thing as a saudi oil tanker
- Telepath-One · acum 8 zile
Because the Houthis recently reinforced their commitment to only striking Saudi ships and Trump allegedly backed off on planned strikes on Yemen.
- TouchdownTerryDunk · acum 8 zile
I understand the rules of the wager but I fail to see how 'Houthis seizing control of the BaM and escalating war with Saudi + possibly US' equates to ever diminishing odds of strait closure. Makes no sense.
- 5038813185 · acum 10 zile
Time decay. 30+ ships are still going through the strait. But if that will still happen is the question.
- TouchdownTerryDunk · acum 11 zile
Sorry, so if it is being reported that "Houthi control over Bab el-Mandeb Strait solidified, raising closure risks", why is the price of Yes for any of the above dates going down? How does this make sense?
- Phenium · acum 11 zile
3
- SIMOMEGA · acum 12 zile
keep this pfp please
- beartrapper · acum 13 zile
every month the reopening gets pushed another month and the money keeps following it, polybro is analysing this market way deeper than I expected
- higinvest · acum 14 zile
U.S. ENERGY SECRETARY WRIGHT: GETTING MORE FLOW THROUGH BAB EL-MANDEB STRAIT WOULD BE HELPFUL - REPORTS
- higinvest · acum 14 zile
Kaja Kallas: The Bab al-Mandab is currently closed and we must strengthen the "Aspides" operation to ensure maritime security
- higinvest · acum 14 zile
YEMENI MILITARY SOURCE TO DPA: THE HOUTHIS HAVE PLANTED MINES INTO THE BAB AL-MANDAB STRAIT
- Eirnearzx51 · acum 15 zile
boberne is win
- anonim · acum 15 zile
noone is stopping you lil bro
- tsybka · acum 16 zile
I want to buy a lot of Dec NO shares.
- Ideal-Campanile · acum 16 zile
Keep dreaming
- WhaleWatch-26463 · acum 17 zile
anoin123 is up 2.15% on their $34,072.79 bet on December 31 with outcome No. Current value: $34,803.76. When you see returns like that, you pay attention.
- WhaleWatch-36491 · acum 17 zile
RememberAmalek is currently one of the most profitable traders on December 31 with already $2,814.80 / +13.29% in total gains. Their position: $24,000.00 on outcome Yes. When the top earner doubles down, keep watching.
- Car · acum 17 zile
bruh
- DontTrustMe · acum 17 zile
Yes buyers be like:
La 30 sept., 03:45 UTC