Will Russia enter Mykolaivka by December 31, 2026?
Preț verificat la
Istoricul probabilităților
Probabilități implicite ale pieței · Tot istoricul înregistratTrage pentru a muta · ciupește sau ⌘/Ctrl+derulare pentru zoom
Perioadele umbrite nu au o verificare orară reușită a prețurilor.
Pe baza prețurilor rezultatelor posibile ale acestei piețe, exprimate ca probabilități.
Reguli de decizie
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Mykolaivka, Donetsk Oblast, (48.854785° N, 37.770676° E) between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. The boundaries of the municipality are those shown under the “Ukrainian Settlements” layer on the ISW map. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading under the following layers will qualify: - Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas - Assessed Russian-Controlled Terrain - Assessed Russian Advances Shading under the following layers will not qualify: - Claimed Russian Territory Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded under a qualifying layer on the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Celelalte variante ale acestui eveniment
O variantă citită singură induce în eroare; celelalte sunt alături.| Piață | Platformă | Preț | Stare |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will Russia enter Mykolaivka by September 30, 2026? | Polymarket | 99 % Yes | Deschisă |
| Will Russia enter Mykolaivka by October 31, 2026? | Polymarket | 100 % Yes | Deschisă |
Activitatea platformei
Citit de la platformă ieriCel mai bun bid 86 % · cel mai bun ask 89 %
Cei mai mari deținători
- DumplingBMF30768194606454554330318015409851928359197509929227644750617759151425615308531
- anoin123436763695028207087837346853974963493625914944441437109981695157092264079183
- siick30768194606454554330318015409851928359197509929227644750617759151425615308531
- B1zz436763695028207087837346853974963493625914944441437109981695157092264079183
- bipbipbop30768194606454554330318015409851928359197509929227644750617759151425615308531
Un instantaneu al pozițiilor, nu un istoric de performanță.
Tranzacții recente
- BUY88 %176 USDieri
- BUY89 %71,2 USDieri
- BUY87 %26,1 USDieri
- SELL14 %1,6 USDieri
- SELL19 %189,6 USDieri
- BUY81 %1,6 K USDieri
Discuție pe Predxy
Ce cred cititorii Predxy despre această piață. Toți pot citi; cititorii autentificați pot scrie. Discuția platformei, dacă există, este în caseta de mai jos.Autentifică-te ca să participi la discuție.
Nimeni nu a spus încă nimic aici.
45 de comentarii
Din discuția proprie a Polymarket- firewalker923 · ieri
Respectfully, your statement shows you don't fully understand this market. Russian troops have been spotted in Mykolyaivka at various times for the past month. Therefore, we know that a single "spotted Russian" does not lead ISW to mark an area as an "Assessed Russian Infiltration" layer. Plus, ISW did not confirm an infiltration. They said an observer reported it. And their latest screenshot DOES NOT include the spot as part of ANY layer. In fact, even the territory NEAREST the spot is not an "Assessed Infiltration" layer. It is merely a "Claimed Russian Territory" layer, which is not criteria for the YES side - if the spot was even part of said layer, which it isn't.
- AntonKovac · ieri
Yeah yeah stop manipulating the market
- tsybka · ieri
In their daily reports, ISW confirmed the infiltration in the southern part of the city. A new zone is also visible on their screenshot, but they forgot to mark it on the map itself. I recommend emailing point out this error. They usually review messages and, recently, have even started replying to them.
- Voland6777 · ieri
Ahh, ok
- bohdancio · ieri
The 24-hour requirement doesn’t necessarily mean that those 24 hours have to be within the same month. If the map is updated on September 30, the 24-hour period can extend into October. What matters is that the map remains updated for 24 hours before it can resolve YES.
- Voland6777 · ieri
There is an update report, but ISW map itself is not updated and by rules it needs 24 hours to keep map updated, before it can be resolved as - "YES"
- bohdancio · ieri
It’s September 30 today! Once they make the changes visible to everyone today, nothing should stop this from resolving YES (unless they decide to joke).
- Voland6777 · ieri
But map wasn't updated, so September should have - No result
- bohdancio · ieri
ISW just published their daily assessment😊😊
- SlowFog · ieri
That spike was all caused by two accounts and they are both getting rinsed on their trade
- SlowFog · ieri
That spike over the last 15 hours is just two accounts, see the activity. Caused a panic.
- drachenlord1710 · ieri
isw is not out yet
- SlowFog · ieri
😅
- Seriip · ieri
This is what happens when you fly in feet-first, following the crowd without checking first. ISW is running true to form, as always. Thanks everyone :)
- Seriip · ieri
Lol, well, they really took us for a ride)))
- antofmanzur · ieri
hahaha ikr, easy af
- drachenlord1710 · ieri
there was no infiltrarion yesterday and Ukraine has the initiative in this direction so...
- antofmanzur · ieri
it´ll end in around 3 hours, no news, NO has value
- drachenlord1710 · alaltăieri
I love how Russians still dont understand what infiltrations are...
- ProxyOne · alaltăieri
Just Mashkovets
La 1 oct., 08:35 UTC