Will Russia enter Dobropillia by December 31?
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Istoricul probabilităților
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Reguli de decizie
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Dobropillia by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. This market refers to the city of Dobropillia (48.47, 37.08), which borders Sviatohorivka and Hannivka. Other Ukrainian towns/cities named Dobropillia will not be considered for resolution. Territory will be considered captured if any part of Dobropillia is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Celelalte variante ale acestui eveniment
O variantă citită singură induce în eroare; celelalte sunt alături.| Piață | Platformă | Preț | Stare |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will Russia enter Dobropillia by October 31? | Polymarket | 100 % Yes | Deschisă |
| Will Russia enter Dobropillia by September 30? | Polymarket | 100 % Yes | Deschisă |
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Citit de la platformă acum 11 zileCel mai bun bid 9 % · cel mai bun ask 11 %
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76 de comentarii
Din discuția proprie a Polymarket- tsybka · acum 11 zile
done
- Dondigidin · acum 11 zile
Connected address not permitted🤣
- Rybkaoi · acum 13 zile
September 15 already resolved No, someone propose
- MitchMcConnell · luna trecută
Bot
- 12beduins · acum 2 luni
Its over for Ukraine 👎
- Dishonest-Potty · acum 3 luni
''NO'' Dobropillia is too much of a main supply road into the fortified Donbas Area. IF the situation along the front gets worse for Ukraine, they will relocate other forces from the frontline to hold such a key route city.
- elosy · acum 3 luni
lol already
- Rassetti · acum 8 luni
While Ukraine recaptured the 'breakthrough' villages in December, the pressure is still insane
- molodoyy · acum 9 luni
a ya tebe govoril
- ErnstStormare · acum 9 luni
Ha, ignore me, clarification already added.
- Nardo99 · acum 9 luni
I just asked. They provided a clarification.
- ErnstStormare · acum 9 luni
Asking on Discord for clarification, but I would advise that you are careful if you intend to rely on this. Not sayign you're wrong, just that I personally wouldn't like to risk money on you being right as far as resolvers are concerned.
- CompulsiveGambler · acum 9 luni
amateur scam dead on arrival. Better luck next scam
- leCommissaire · acum 9 luni
hey. 1 week. u need to propose
- Nardo99 · acum 9 luni
The market doesnt specify which one. Dobropillia north of Hulyapole satisfies the conditions as they are written.
- ErnstStormare · acum 9 luni
The proposer needs to be one of the few on the (relatively new) whitelist. And this is the Pokrovsk Dobropillia, no? That's the one that ISW has a whole tactical area map of. Should be clarified though.
- Nardo99 · acum 9 luni
This should be resolved to yes.
- dim · acum 9 luni
isw and the proposer make most of markets like this shady and uncertain
- dim · acum 9 luni
Now it's looks like the proposer can manipulate with this market. The rules are clear price drops and the proposer can buy all cheep shares right after propose or buy no shares with every increase in price and later say that it were other Dobropillia. Some shady stuff here
- Nardo99 · acum 9 luni
Indeed. But yes holders are apparently poor. We need to find some whale who can push this through.
La 1 oct., 05:44 UTC