Will United Russia win between 340 and 354 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?
Prețul nu a fost încă verificat independent.
Istoricul probabilităților
Probabilități implicite ale pieței · Tot istoricul înregistratTrage pentru a muta · ciupește sau ⌘/Ctrl+derulare pentru zoom
Perioadele umbrite nu au o verificare orară reușită a prețurilor.
Pe baza prețurilor rezultatelor posibile ale acestei piețe, exprimate ca probabilități.
Reguli de decizie
Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by United Russia in the State Duma as a result of the next Russian legislative election. If results are not known definitively by May 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Celelalte variante ale acestui eveniment
O variantă citită singură induce în eroare; celelalte sunt alături.| Piață | Platformă | Preț | Stare |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will United Russia win 355 or more seats in the next Russian State Duma election? | Polymarket | 100 % No | Deschisă |
Activitatea platformei
Citit de la platformă acum 10 zileCel mai bun bid 3 % · cel mai bun ask 5 %
Cei mai mari deținători
- 0xa5ef39c3d3e10d0b270233af41cac69796b1296660139692331470983073528377436541406561182577422114913333962244219622945192165
- flawfence64222838365566779811156446052958889905531155913373673203287843797393909396341
- fendop64222838365566779811156446052958889905531155913373673203287843797393909396341
- Kutoba64222838365566779811156446052958889905531155913373673203287843797393909396341
- zubizubizu64222838365566779811156446052958889905531155913373673203287843797393909396341
Un instantaneu al pozițiilor, nu un istoric de performanță.
Tranzacții recente
- BUY5 %6 USDacum 10 zile
- SELL95 %10,7 USDacum 10 zile
- SELL95 %9,9 USDacum 10 zile
- SELL95 %10,2 USDacum 10 zile
- SELL95 %11,4 USDacum 10 zile
- SELL96 %9,8 USDacum 10 zile
Discuție pe Predxy
Ce cred cititorii Predxy despre această piață. Toți pot citi; cititorii autentificați pot scrie. Discuția platformei, dacă există, este în caseta de mai jos.Autentifică-te ca să participi la discuție.
Nimeni nu a spus încă nimic aici.
97 de comentarii
Din discuția proprie a Polymarket- Glum-Yew · acum 10 zile
У Справедливой России уже 5,22% голосов. Посчитано больше 98%. Уже чисто математически невозможно чтобы она получила меньше 5%. У единой России 139 -140 мест по партийными списки и 208-209 мест по одномандатным округам. В итоге 347-349 мест. Пари закончено
- forinnerpsandr1x11222 · acum 10 zile
sorry. mistake? I meant *And it's not about 354 or 355 seats.*
- forinnerpsandr1x11222 · acum 10 zile
Literally EVERY newspaper? If that's true, it just proves how incompetent the people who chose journalism as a career are. And it's not about 354 or 345 seats. United Russia will get either 345 (or 344-346 doesn't matter so much) seats or 355. +-10 seats. It depends on whether one of the parties clears the 5% threshold. But by all means, keep reading those worthless rags instead of switching your brain on.
- mandraca · acum 10 zile
Every newspaper is writing 355 seats to Putin, the only media which is talking about 354 is Polymarket
- VJR-24 · acum 10 zile
lets goo 356
- Kutoba · acum 10 zile
Reports 😂 this is Russian election, does not work like that. U shall check Just Russia’s lead account in X - he twitted in English that they are in. Why? Cuz he called Putin and asked for 0.5%, so Putin said ok, you are my old friend and now r dying so will keep your party alive. Some media published transcripts of this call
- forinnerpsandr1x11222 · acum 10 zile
Пургу он нёс. Флудил во всех темах. Никакой внятной и стройной позиции у него не было и фундаментального анализа. Я пытался с ним общаться и выведать логику действий, её не было. Я заподозрил неладное, когда он встал в позу против меня, а потом продал её дешевле чем купил)))). Я подумал, в совокупности с его расплывчатыми комментариями, что мужик просто торговать пытается. Но нет. Оказался лудоманом. Проиграл все ставки, очень закономерный итог. У участников рынка, кто тут ставил не было информации. Я не инсайдер, и вообще не живу в России, например, но забрал большую часть рынка про регионы. Было страшно)) Но к счастью такие люди как богдан обеспечили мне приятные выходные. Дай бог им здоровья и всех благ в жизни.
- Raskell · acum 10 zile
Would you mind sharing the reports/source?
- Untidy-Examination · acum 10 zile
it's fcking possible
- VJR-24 · acum 10 zile
ya 355 sure
- Untidy-Examination · acum 10 zile
new reports indicate that a just russia has not reached 5%; it currently stands at 4.93%
- VJR-24 · acum 10 zile
So the arithmetic is internally consistent: 355 is not just possible, it's very close to the mathematically expected outcome once SR's votes get redistributed. The reason it lands at the high end of what I estimated earlier is that essentially all of United Russia's leads in single-mandate districts held up through final counting, which is typical in Russian elections.
- CIOH · acum 10 zile
бро. я читал твои комменты, ты подошел к выборам с очень неплохим фундаментальным анализом, но что ты не учёл, это то что вероятности как ты оцениваешь событие они субъективные для тебя, в выборах рф не бывает ни 50 на 50, ни 90 на 10, а всегда 100 на 0 для тех кто владеет информацией. поэтому ставка на новых людей была объективно плохой. надеюсь у тебя все норм и ты отыграешся в 2030
- YourAnimeGirl · acum 10 zile
Don't worry United Russia will do anything for it to 355
- u2j4324 · acum 10 zile
@bogdanc1 Ты еще живой?
- bogdanc1 · acum 10 zile
это был потенциальный подсчет на фоне 95% обработанных протоколов. итоговые результаты будут не ранее 25 сентября
- bobrenokli · acum 10 zile
In all Russian media, the figure 355 is only confirmed from early in the morning. Why does everyone put it at 347_354?
- Valid-Profit · acum 10 zile
if it's 347. then the vote is such a joke
- bobrenokli · acum 10 zile
356)
- Alfisy94 · acum 10 zile
now 355
La 1 oct., 22:50 UTC