Will there be exactly 0 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026?
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Reguli de decizie
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus. Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
Celelalte variante ale acestui eveniment
O variantă citită singură induce în eroare; celelalte sunt alături.| Piață | Platformă | Preț | Stare |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will there be exactly 1 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruption worldwide in 2026? | Polymarket | 53 % No | Deschisă |
| Will there be exactly 3 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026? | Polymarket | 99 % No | Deschisă |
| Will there be 5 or more confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026? | Polymarket | 99 % No | Deschisă |
| Will there be exactly 4 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026? | Polymarket | 100 % No | Deschisă |
| Will there be exactly 2 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026? | Polymarket | 90 % No | Deschisă |
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10 comentarii
Din discuția proprie a Polymarket- TheJewishHammer · acum 16 zile
What happened
- TheJewishHammer · acum 16 zile
What happened?
- informedtrader · acum 9 luni
volcano eruptions just happened
- informedtrader · acum 9 luni
twitter report a large volcano eruptions just happened
- informedtrader · acum 9 luni
Retail footage report a large volcano eruptions just happened
- Silos · acum 9 luni
Statistically, we usually get about three VEI 4 events a year, so don't freak out yet. The real one to watch is Hekla in Iceland scientists have been tracking the ground inflation there for a while, and it’s overdue for a big Plinian-style event.
- SwissTac0 · acum 9 luni
is this more than or exact?
- 1walrus · acum 9 luni
They should've made better rules
- PassiveStrike · acum 9 luni
And what happens if a volcano which started before 2026 is upgraded during the year? I think that should count.
- PassiveStrike · acum 9 luni
Are we talking about this list? [link removed] (but for 2026). If so I think there needs to be some clarification about the intention of the market. If a volcano is listed under the "Total" column as a VEI 4, but its "Start Date" is prior to 2026, does it count? Manam, Semeru, and Sheveluch have all been listed as "4" on all the lists from 2020 to 2025... but surely this market is about *new* eruptions, not old ones that happen to make this list because they're still active. Right? The rule currently seem to suggest otherwise.
La 30 sept., 06:05 UTC