AI bubble burst by June 30, 2027?
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Entscheidungsregeln
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the AI industry experiences an industry downturn by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, the AI industry will be considered to have experienced an industry downturn once at least three of the following events have occurred within 90 days of this market's specified timeframe: - NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) closing stock price is down 50% from its all-time high. - iShares PHLX Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) closing stock price is down 40% from its all-time high. - OpenAI, Inc. or Anthropic PBC declares bankruptcy. - OpenAI, Inc. is acquired. - H100 rental price falls to $1.00 or lower for five consecutive days, as shown on the SiliconData Silicon Index at: https://www.silicondata.com/products/silicon-index. - Major AI Hardware Supplier Collapse: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM), ASML Holding N.V. (ASML), Broadcom Inc. (AVGO), Arista Networks, Inc. (ANET), or Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI), closing stock price is down 50% from its all-time high. This market may resolve immediately once three conditions have been met within 90 days of the specified timeframe. For clarity, ‘within 90 days of this market’s specified timeframe’ means that three qualifying events must occur within a single 90-day window that ends no later than the market’s final resolution deadline. For example, with a December 31, 2026 deadline, if Event A occurs on January 10, Event B on February 5, and Event C on March 3 of 2026, this would qualify because all three fall within one 90-day span. By contrast, if Event A occurs on January 10, Event B on April 20, and Event C on November 1 of 2026, they would not qualify because they do not occur within the same 90-day window. This market will not resolve to "Yes" until three conditions have been met, regardless of reporting of an industry downturn or similar claims. The primary resolution source will be official information from the respective companies and listing exchanges; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Weitere Ausprägungen dieses Ereignisses
Eine Ausprägung allein führt in die Irre; die anderen stehen daneben.| Markt | Plattform | Preis | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| AI bubble burst in 2026? | Polymarket | 92 % No | Offen |
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94 Kommentare
Aus dem eigenen Thread von Polymarket- brzi · vor 11 Tagen
Should've bought more Nos then xd
- LA17 · vor 27 Tagen
one or two quarter point hikes won't cause a 2022 style crash
- Rooglish · vor 27 Tagen
Rates will probably be going up. The bubble depends on low rates staying low. One of these days, perhaps when nobody expects it...something will happen.
- LA17 · vor 27 Tagen
the top no holder sold all his shares with a market order. he threw away so much money lol. I'm so mad at myself for not having more limit orders in place
- Rooglish · vor 28 Tagen
Odds just jumped up?? But that's odd because the stock market is also up.
- Rooglish · letzten Monat
Sam Altman gave a hint.
- Rooglish · letzten Monat
Sam Altman have a hint.
- Rude-Data · vor 2 Monaten
Blud I think you need to switch up the strategy. Nasdaq and S&P closing new ATHs this month
- Rooglish · vor 2 Monaten
It says all events within 90 days. So it has to all be sudden.
- Accalia · vor 2 Monaten
A slight pullback, which is already recovering.
- pika2zero · vor 2 Monaten
Then its kinda stupid to include smci
- anonym · vor 2 Monaten
Not what the rules say. The 90 day rule means the 3 qualifying events must happen in a 90 day window. Every closing price that is 50% from its all-time high (regardless when that all time high happened) qualifies.
- pika2zero · vor 2 Monaten
Just noticed that smci is down 50% anyway. Now its on soxx to pump from here
- Rooglish · vor 2 Monaten
This bubble is bursting on summer earnings. Looks like this could indeed resolve to yes.
- pika2zero · vor 2 Monaten
From its 2026 all-time high right? Because SMCI was already down >50% from its ATH at time of market creation. They topped in 2024
- Rooglish · vor 3 Monaten
Looking at this again the rules are not favorable for a yes resolution even though the bubble is bursting. Market lower options are far better.
- Unfolded-Pavilion · vor 4 Monaten
I need a december 2027 option
- TonyQ7 · vor 4 Monaten
Fr
- Nali20000 · vor 5 Monaten
What do you mean?
- Wiczus · vor 5 Monaten
Bad rules...
Stand 1. Okt., 23:25 UTC