Iran full airspace closure by December 31?
Preis geprüft am
Wahrscheinlichkeitsverlauf
Marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeiten · Gesamter aufgezeichneter VerlaufZiehen zum Verschieben · Zwei-Finger-Geste oder ⌘/Strg+Scrollen zum Zoomen
Schattierte Zeiträume haben keine erfolgreiche stündliche Preisprüfung.
Basierend auf den Preisen der möglichen Ergebnisse dieses Marktes, ausgedrückt als Wahrscheinlichkeiten.
Entscheidungsregeln
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran initiates a general closure of its airspace, that is not solely due to weather conditions, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A “general closure” refers to a cancellation or suspension of aviation which is generally applicable to all commercial flights transiting Iranian airspace (“Tehran FIR”). A qualifying closure must apply generally to all of Iran or the Tehran FIR; limited cancellations, delays, or partial closures will not qualify. A closure which applies generally to commercial aviation across Iranian airspace, with limited exceptions for certain categories of flights, however, will qualify (e.g. exceptions for certain flights pre-approved by the Iranian Civil Aviation Authority may be permitted). Qualifying previous examples include the February 28, 2026 total closure of Iranian airspace (https://www.iranintl.com/en/202602289115) and the January 2026 total closure of Iranian airspace except to international flights with express governmental permission (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-shuts-airspace-most-flights-flightradar24-says-2026-01-14/). Non-qualifying examples include the January 27, 2026 partial closure of Iranian airspace around the Strait of Hormuz (https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/iran-issues-airspace-notice-for-military-drills-near-strait-of-hormuz/3812508), the April 2024 closure of Iran’s western airspace (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iranian-airports-cancel-flights-until-monday-morning-2024-04-14/), and the January 25 - April 25, 2026 VFR (Visual Flight Rules) flights suspension which did not broadly close commercial aviation in Iran (https://www.intellinews.com/iran-suspends-general-aviation-and-vfr-flights-in-new-airspace-directive-421997/). Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Iran will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution. Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions, earthquakes, or volcanic eruptions, will not qualify. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Iranian aviation authorities and a consensus of credible reporting.
Weitere Ausprägungen dieses Ereignisses
Eine Ausprägung allein führt in die Irre; die anderen stehen daneben.| Markt | Plattform | Preis | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Iran full airspace closure by September 30? | Polymarket | 99 % No | Offen |
| Iran full airspace closure by October 31, 2026? | Polymarket | 89 % No | Offen |
Aktivität auf der Plattform
Von der Plattform gelesen vor 8 TagenBestes Gebot 26 % · bester Brief 27 %
Größte Halter
- Valen938920824596940566520627325808924938453425845390003657036912369412019539683738
- cambridgeisaac38920824596940566520627325808924938453425845390003657036912369412019539683738
- DerDon29437165757872171455593111483309548889820974982069052877568301892400345063381
- Hossein-m29437165757872171455593111483309548889820974982069052877568301892400345063381
- 0x413531f78b28c2f2014dd82e92f46802769ce46229437165757872171455593111483309548889820974982069052877568301892400345063381
Eine Momentaufnahme der Positionen, keine Erfolgsbilanz.
Letzte Trades
- SELL26 %9,5 $vor 8 Tagen
- BUY27 %1 $vor 8 Tagen
- BUY27 %30 $vor 8 Tagen
- SELL26 %39,3 $vor 9 Tagen
- SELL26 %13 $vor 9 Tagen
- BUY74 %37 $vor 9 Tagen
Diskussion auf Predxy
Was Predxys Leser von diesem Markt halten. Lesen kann jeder; schreiben, wer angemeldet ist. Die Diskussion der Plattform selbst, sofern es eine gibt, steht im Kasten darunter.Melde dich an, um mitzudiskutieren.
Hier hat noch niemand etwas gesagt.
1.066 Kommentare
Aus dem eigenen Thread von Polymarket- pink.impala · vor 20 Tagen
fuck ukraine
- SIMOMEGA · vor 21 Tagen
says the guy with neg pnl
- pink.impala · vor 25 Tagen
🤡
- SIMOMEGA · vor 26 Tagen
cmon guys give me another market manip pleaseeee
- Ponno · vor 29 Tagen
FIRST ONE SENDS 1$ GET 20$ HARRY UP
- Shay1 · vor 29 Tagen
Well it’s or tonight or August 31 done🥲
- Hennesseeyyyy · letzten Monat
Iran announced airspace clearance!
- GollumGekko · letzten Monat
REPORT FROM IRAN: Tehran’s Mehrabad Airport has been closed until further notice.
- Car · letzten Monat
boom
- clazzy1 · letzten Monat
mike are you done losing?
- SIMOMEGA · letzten Monat
what happened to Yes pricing?
- hyper-liquid-xyz · letzten Monat
Iran has a 3-4 week ultimatum issued a few days ago for US to surrender to their demands. Iran's Araghchi mocked Trump's economic d-day tweet, he claimed the move was designed to distract from Washington’s “unprecedented debt & surging interest costs”.
- Shay1 · letzten Monat
Too much quitting ngl I think we back to war this time fr or ggs and go 100% forever peace type of shit
- Mikelious · letzten Monat
IDF HAS ENTERED ALI TAHER RIDGE.
- abdoohl · vor 2 Monaten
Israeli regime gonna force Trump to attack again, rest assured 🤡 hes gonna sit in his food cart and shiver cuz Israelis scare him with Iranians 😂 😂
- Mikelious · vor 2 Monaten
BREAKING: U.S. preparing for a significant escalation of pressure on Iran** The United States is expected to expand its economic and maritime pressure measures against Iran, going beyond sanctions on Iranian companies and entities. The main focus: money-transfer networks and currency exchangers suspected of facilitating the transfer of funds to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and Iran’s armed forces.
- Shay1 · vor 2 Monaten
An Iranian Revolutionary Guards Navy commander, anonymously to the Lebanese newspaper Al-Akhbar affiliated with Hezbollah:* "Do you have a thought for a historic response, if such an attack is launched when no target in our target bank will be immune, whether small or large" ✍️ The Iranian commander is responding appropriately to any attempt to take control of the islands around the Strait of Hormuz, hours after an oil tanker was hit by a drone in the Strait.
- Mikelious · vor 2 Monaten
U.S. President Donald Trump: "Pretty soon, I'll be declaring the Strait of Hormuz a territory of the United States."
- Mikelious · vor 2 Monaten
According to sources: U.S. CENTCOM Commander Admiral Brad Cooper is pushing for renewed strikes on Iran. Cooper reportedly told Israeli officials that he believes resuming the military campaign against Iran could put pressure on Tehran and lead it to change its position in the negotiations.
- Shay1 · vor 2 Monaten
Reports of explosions in the Sirik region of southern Iran* ✍️ Channels affiliated with the Revolutionary Guards are reporting explosions in the region, and claim that this is likely a missile launch towards the Strait of Hormuz - another incident in the sensitive strait, after earlier today it was reported that a US helicopter fired at a ship that tried to break the blockade.
Stand 30. Sept., 00:47 UTC