Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record?
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Entscheidungsregeln
This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data. Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc. If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies. This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
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Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record?
This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data. Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc. If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies. This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
375 Halter · 29 Kommentare · gelesen 27. Sept., 23:49 UTC
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Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record?
This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data. Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc. If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies. This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
gelesen 29. Sept., 19:19 UTC
Weitere Ausprägungen dieses Ereignisses
Eine Ausprägung allein führt in die Irre; die anderen stehen daneben.| Markt | Plattform | Preis | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will 2026 be the fifth-hottest year on record? | Polymarket | 100 % No | Offen |
| Will 2026 be the hottest year on record? | Polymarket | 71 % Yes | Offen |
| Will 2026 be the third-hottest year on record? | Polymarket | 100 % No | Offen |
| Will 2026 be the fourth-hottest year on record? | Polymarket | 100 % No | Offen |
| Will 2026 rank as the sixth-hottest year on record or lower? | Polymarket | 100 % No | Offen |
Aktivität auf der Plattform
Von der Plattform gelesen vorgesternBestes Gebot 70 % · bester Brief 71 %
Größte Halter
- 0xa5ef39c3d3e10d0b270233af41cac69796b1296638427187039087275831933800466434320467406541286363861727350171951133298863067
- gopfan293766990226491733942214251921024942451432775407674989883724893659074859142435
- troim93766990226491733942214251921024942451432775407674989883724893659074859142435
- anoin12393766990226491733942214251921024942451432775407674989883724893659074859142435
- russell11032038427187039087275831933800466434320467406541286363861727350171951133298863067
Eine Momentaufnahme der Positionen, keine Erfolgsbilanz.
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Diskussion auf Predxy
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Hier hat noch niemand etwas gesagt.
25 Kommentare
Aus dem eigenen Thread von Polymarket- semantics · vorgestern
El Niño is coming…
- xiaodouzi · vor 6 Tagen
Temperature of where? It’s not hot at all this year in China. So if China is taken into consideration, it probably ranks 6th or lower.
- igliberg · vor 3 Monaten
i have heard that France is "burining"
- Famous-Fallacy · vor 3 Monaten
Hansen et all believe this year will be number 1.
- exmateriae · vor 3 Monaten
Berkeley now gives 2.5% to "1"
- Short-Tunic · vor 3 Monaten
6 or lower
- Short-Tunic · vor 3 Monaten
6
- exmateriae · vor 4 Monaten
Berkeley Earth March 2026 Temperature Update gives a 5% chance of 2026 being the warmest year on record. "1" is way too high.
- Academic-Forecast · vor 4 Monaten
It wasn't his simple question, but your revealing answer. Now I see it, thanks :D
- studmuffin6969 · vor 4 Monaten
in the US half the country does't believe in thermometers.
- Climatologist · vor 5 Monaten
Seems fairly priced
- Famous-Fallacy · vor 5 Monaten
Hansen et all predicting 2026 to be the hottest year with 0.06 degrees margin. [link removed]
- Pasun4ik · vor 7 Monaten
haaaa
- DYANA41800 · vor 7 Monaten
ArmageddonRewardsBilly Hi I tried very hard but unfortunately I couldn't contact you.
- Gennedy · vor 8 Monaten
I agree, it makes no sense at all.
- Eia · vor 9 Monaten
Why not delete your comment and trade on it yourself? 2026 is a long year, plenty of fish around. Some dont even research or read comments like the average shark comment above 😅 plz delete so we get better values 🙏
- Zwicky · vor 9 Monaten
Ok, now I understand. Thanks.
- TESTENAOMEXA · vor 9 Monaten
My friend, would you mind sharing where you collect the data about this?
- Roro22 · vor 9 Monaten
Becase this year and 2023 will differ only by a slight margin and are both below the warmest year 2024, so its a low probability 2026 lands inbetween them and becomes third. Cheers!
- Zwicky · vor 9 Monaten
Why second and fourth has around 40% but third one has 6%. This doesn't make sense to me.
Stand 29. Sept., 22:10 UTC