Where Will 2026 Rank Among the Hottest Years on Record? — 4th

This market will settle to Yes if 2026 is the fourth hottest year on record on the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index. Outcome sourced from NASA GISS. The relevant figure will be found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" at https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt. Years are ranked in descending order by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, and so on, across all years for which the index has data. If 2026 is tied with another year in the ranking, the tied rank governs. For example, if 2026 is tied for 2nd, it is ranked 2nd (not 3rd). Settlement will be based on the data as first published by NASA GISS. Subsequent revisions will not be considered.