Grok 5 Released? — By September 30, 2026

This market will settle to Yes if xAI releases Grok 5 by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Outcome sourced from xAI. A "release" refers to the specified model being made accessible and usable to the general public without requiring special status, including via an open beta or open rolling waitlist. A release available to some or all paid members of the public qualifies. A closed beta, or access limited to a closed group of testers, researchers, or enterprise customers, does not qualify. Grok 5 refers to any model explicitly named Grok 5 or greater, or to any model that is identified by xAI as a new model generation successor to the Grok 4 generation. Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7 or additional decimalized Grok 4 variants will not qualify.