Bluest state to elect a Republican senator in 2026?: Will Illinois be the state with the highest 2024 Harris-minus-Trump presidential margin among states where a Republican candidate wins a 2026 U.S. Senate election?

If Illinois is the state with the highest 2024 Harris-minus-Trump presidential margin among states where a Republican candidate wins a 2026 U.S. Senate election, then the market resolves to Yes. A state's 2024 margin is Kamala Harris's share of that state's certified 2024 presidential vote minus Donald Trump's share, per the Federal Election Commission's official 2024 presidential general election results. The margin is negative where Trump won. A state qualifies only if the certified winner of its 2026 regular or special U.S. Senate election, after any required runoff or ranked-choice tabulation, is listed on the general-election ballot as a Republican. Independent and third-party winners do NOT count, even if they caucus with Republicans. Each state's winner is as certified by that state's official election authority. An unlisted qualifying state with the highest margin, or no qualifying state, makes every named market resolve NO.