Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?

### **Market Dates:** - **Market Period**: From the publication date through October 28, 2026, at 11:59 PM UTC. - **Market Close:** October 28, 2026, at 11:59 PM UTC. - **Resolution Deadline:** The resolution will be determined after the outcome is announced. ### **Resolution Criteria:** - This market will resolve according to the amount of basis points by which the upper bound of the target federal funds rate changes relative to the level in place before the Federal Reserve’s October 2026 meeting. For example, if the FED decides to keep rates the same, this market will resolve “**Yes**” for “**No change**” and **“No”** for all other listed options. ### **Resolution Details:** - This market will resolve based on the official FOMC statement released following its October 27-28, 2026 meeting. If no statement is released before the end date of the subsequent scheduled meeting, the market will resolve to “Yes” for the “No change” bracket. - If the target federal funds rate is adjusted to a level not represented by the listed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and resolved to the corresponding bracket. For example, a 12.5 bps increase or decrease will be treated as a 25 bps change. ### **Cancellation Conditions:** - The resolution source is suspended, becomes unreliable, or experiences significant disruptions during the Market Period. If cancelled, participants may claim their stakes at the then-current market value of their shares, which could result in a profit or a loss depending on their open positions.

Quellehttps://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm