Canadian counter-tariff rate on U.S. electric trucks at the end of 2026: Will the Canadian federal counter-tariff rate applicable to U.S.-origin electric trucks on December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET be above 40%?

If the Canadian federal counter-tariff rate applicable to U.S.-origin electric trucks as of December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET is above 40%, then the market resolves to Yes. "Electric trucks" means vehicles classified under Canadian tariff item 8704.60.00. The measured value is the standard counter-tariff percentage applicable to non-CUSMA-compliant vehicles, excluding ordinary customs duties, sales taxes and importer-specific exemptions, remissions or rebates. Settlement uses the rate actually in effect at the observation time, including amendments, suspensions and repeals effective by then, rather than the first published rate. A rate published before issuance remains eligible if still in effect. Announced changes effective afterward do not count. If no counter-tariff applies to the defined vehicles, the value is 0%; unavailable data alone does not establish a 0% rate.