Will Ashley Hinson receive at least 52% of the popular vote in the 2026 Iowa Senate election?

If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Ashley Hinson in the 2026 Iowa Senate election is 52% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes. The percentage is calculated as (total votes received by Ashley Hinson ÷ total valid votes cast) × 100, rounded to two decimal places. Except as provided in the Contract, resolution is based on certified/official results only, not preliminary results. Write-in votes are included if they appear in certified results. Invalid, spoiled, or rejected ballots are excluded from both numerator and denominator.