Will Trump run for a third term?: Will Donald Trump announce a run for President of the United States before Jan 1, 2028? Before 2028

No87 %
Before 202813 %

Preis geprüft am

Handeln
Lege dein Land fest, um zu sehen, wo du handeln kannst.Land festlegen →
Öffnet die Plattform in einem neuen Tab, über Predxy.
24h-Volumen0 $
7-Tage-Volumen—
30-Tage-Volumen—
Liquidität—
Spread2 %
Entscheidet sich1. Jan. 2028nächstes Jahr

Wahrscheinlichkeitsverlauf

Ziehen zum Verschieben · Zwei-Finger-Geste oder ⌘/Strg+Scrollen zum Zoomen

Schattierte Zeiträume haben keine erfolgreiche stündliche Preisprüfung.

Wahrscheinlichkeitsverlauf0%25%50%75%100%7. Sept.13. Sept.19. Sept.25. Sept.1. Okt.Schattierte Zeiträume haben keine erfolgreiche stündliche Preisprüfung.Schattierte Zeiträume haben keine erfolgreiche stündliche Preisprüfung.Schattierte Zeiträume haben keine erfolgreiche stündliche Preisprüfung.Schattierte Zeiträume haben keine erfolgreiche stündliche Preisprüfung.

Basierend auf den Preisen der möglichen Ergebnisse dieses Marktes, ausgedrückt als Wahrscheinlichkeiten.

Entscheidungsregeln

If Donald Trump has announced that he will run for President of the United States in 2028 before Jan 1, 2028, including running for the nomination of any political party to contest that office, then the market resolves to Yes. The person must publicly announce their campaign for it to be reported by a Source Agency. Merely filing campaign paperwork with the Federal Election Commission or similar entity is insufficient without a public announcement. The announcement must be for the specific office and election year listed. Exploratory committees or statements of interest without formal campaign announcements do not qualify. Running for a party's nomination to contest the office counts as running for that office. The announcement must come from the person themselves or their official campaign, not from speculation or third-party sources.

Dieselbe Frage anderswo

Zusammengefasste Frage anzeigen →
Vergleichbar, nicht identisch. The venues differ in their stated resolution procedures: Polymarket may use official statements or a consensus of credible reporting, while Kalshi requires reporting by a Source Agency and excludes exploratory statements. Their settlement timestamps also differ, but both use the same substantive deadline of before January 1, 2028.
  • PolymarketÖffnen →

    Will Donald Trump announce a presidential run before 2028?

    This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual officially announces that they are running for U.S. President in the 2028 United States presidential election by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement by the listed individual will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they actually filed a nomination to run, or whether they actually file a nomination to run in the future. A qualifying announcement must be explicit and unambiguous. Conditional statements, or statements that are clearly sarcastic, made in jest, or immediately clarified as not being genuine will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by the listed individual (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

    2 Halter · 0 Kommentare · gelesen 30. Sept., 17:05 UTC

  • Kalshidieser Markt

    Will Trump run for a third term?: Will Donald Trump announce a run for President of the United States before Jan 1, 2028? Before 2028

    If Donald Trump has announced that he will run for President of the United States in 2028 before Jan 1, 2028, including running for the nomination of any political party to contest that office, then the market resolves to Yes. The person must publicly announce their campaign for it to be reported by a Source Agency. Merely filing campaign paperwork with the Federal Election Commission or similar entity is insufficient without a public announcement. The announcement must be for the specific office and election year listed. Exploratory committees or statements of interest without formal campaign announcements do not qualify. Running for a party's nomination to contest the office counts as running for that office. The announcement must come from the person themselves or their official campaign, not from speculation or third-party sources.

    gelesen 30. Sept., 10:06 UTC

Weitere Ausprägungen dieses Ereignisses

Aktivität auf der Plattform

Halter—
Gehaltener Wert—
Trades (24h)—
Trades—
Offene Positionen—
Kommentare0

Diskussion auf Predxy

Melde dich an, um mitzudiskutieren.

Hier hat noch niemand etwas gesagt.

Stand 1. Okt., 10:30 UTC