When will Canada and the US finalize a trade deal?: Will it be reported by a Source Agency that Canada and the United States have concluded a final trade agreement before Oct 1, 2026?

If Canada and the United States have concluded a final trade agreement after Issuance and before Oct 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. An agreement is concluded if either: it is signed or formally executed by authorized officials of both governments, or both governments announce that negotiations have concluded and that the agreed tariff changes are being implemented, or those tariff changes take legal effect in both countries under the agreement. An agreement can be concluded even if individual sectors remain subject to further negotiation, and regardless of when the agreed changes take effect. The following do NOT count: Anything announced before Issuance, including the announcements of August 18 and 19, 2026 of a deal reached, agreed in principle, or pending final documentation, and any draft agreement reported before Issuance An agreement announced as reached by only one of the two governments A framework, term sheet, memorandum of understanding or joint communique that both governments describe as still subject to negotiation of its core terms A temporary tariff pause, suspension or deadline extension not accompanied by a concluded agreement Continued or resumed negotiations, however described Action taken unilaterally by one government Only reporting from a Source Agency qualifies for the purposes of this market. Reports that merely reference prior publications (from before Issuance) do not qualify. Republishing of content originally produced by other sources (e.g., wire services) only qualifies if the content is hosted on the outlet's official platform and the outlet is clearly identified as the publishing entity.