Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?
Preis geprüft am
Wahrscheinlichkeitsverlauf
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Schattierte Zeiträume haben keine erfolgreiche stündliche Preisprüfung.
Basierend auf den Preisen der möglichen Ergebnisse dieses Marktes, ausgedrückt als Wahrscheinlichkeiten.
Entscheidungsregeln
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Weitere Ausprägungen dieses Ereignisses
Eine Ausprägung allein führt in die Irre; die anderen stehen daneben.| Markt | Plattform | Preis | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 15? | Polymarket | 100 % No | Offen |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? | Polymarket | 100 % No | Offen |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31? | Polymarket | 83 % No | Offen |
Aktivität auf der Plattform
Von der Plattform gelesen vor 4 TagenBestes Gebot 7 % · bester Brief 9 %
Größte Halter
- RememberAmalek6220545533865458838439353925905089798175804014497201461345552520180406649867
- hymolu70030115059657619835298505562942969537246277591722136105311697979834740900724
- 50388131856220545533865458838439353925905089798175804014497201461345552520180406649867
- GayPride6220545533865458838439353925905089798175804014497201461345552520180406649867
- tennisclub70030115059657619835298505562942969537246277591722136105311697979834740900724
Eine Momentaufnahme der Positionen, keine Erfolgsbilanz.
Letzte Trades
- BUY8 %62 $vor 4 Tagen
- BUY93 %49,5 $vor 4 Tagen
- SELL8 %376,9 $vor 4 Tagen
- BUY93 %499,4 $vor 4 Tagen
- BUY92 %39,2 $vor 4 Tagen
- BUY92 %55,3 $vor 4 Tagen
Diskussion auf Predxy
Was Predxys Leser von diesem Markt halten. Lesen kann jeder; schreiben, wer angemeldet ist. Die Diskussion der Plattform selbst, sofern es eine gibt, steht im Kasten darunter.Melde dich an, um mitzudiskutieren.
Hier hat noch niemand etwas gesagt.
275 Kommentare
Aus dem eigenen Thread von Polymarket- Tezcatlipoca · vor 5 Tagen
There was some assumption that if the houthis took over bab they would immediately shut it down and traffic would drop to almost zero. It’s still open and working relatively normally
- zthunderfury · vor 7 Tagen
Imagine thinking random bulk craft going through suez being the same thing as a saudi oil tanker
- Telepath-One · vor 7 Tagen
Because the Houthis recently reinforced their commitment to only striking Saudi ships and Trump allegedly backed off on planned strikes on Yemen.
- TouchdownTerryDunk · vor 8 Tagen
I understand the rules of the wager but I fail to see how 'Houthis seizing control of the BaM and escalating war with Saudi + possibly US' equates to ever diminishing odds of strait closure. Makes no sense.
- 5038813185 · vor 10 Tagen
Time decay. 30+ ships are still going through the strait. But if that will still happen is the question.
- TouchdownTerryDunk · vor 11 Tagen
Sorry, so if it is being reported that "Houthi control over Bab el-Mandeb Strait solidified, raising closure risks", why is the price of Yes for any of the above dates going down? How does this make sense?
- Phenium · vor 11 Tagen
3
- SIMOMEGA · vor 12 Tagen
keep this pfp please
- beartrapper · vor 13 Tagen
every month the reopening gets pushed another month and the money keeps following it, polybro is analysing this market way deeper than I expected
- higinvest · vor 13 Tagen
U.S. ENERGY SECRETARY WRIGHT: GETTING MORE FLOW THROUGH BAB EL-MANDEB STRAIT WOULD BE HELPFUL - REPORTS
- higinvest · vor 13 Tagen
Kaja Kallas: The Bab al-Mandab is currently closed and we must strengthen the "Aspides" operation to ensure maritime security
- higinvest · vor 14 Tagen
YEMENI MILITARY SOURCE TO DPA: THE HOUTHIS HAVE PLANTED MINES INTO THE BAB AL-MANDAB STRAIT
- Eirnearzx51 · vor 15 Tagen
boberne is win
- anonym · vor 15 Tagen
noone is stopping you lil bro
- tsybka · vor 15 Tagen
I want to buy a lot of Dec NO shares.
- Ideal-Campanile · vor 16 Tagen
Keep dreaming
- WhaleWatch-26463 · vor 17 Tagen
anoin123 is up 2.15% on their $34,072.79 bet on December 31 with outcome No. Current value: $34,803.76. When you see returns like that, you pay attention.
- WhaleWatch-36491 · vor 17 Tagen
RememberAmalek is currently one of the most profitable traders on December 31 with already $2,814.80 / +13.29% in total gains. Their position: $24,000.00 on outcome Yes. When the top earner doubles down, keep watching.
- Car · vor 17 Tagen
bruh
- DontTrustMe · vor 17 Tagen
Yes buyers be like:
Stand 29. Sept., 23:26 UTC