Gemini 4.0 released by November 30, 2026?
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Basierend auf den Preisen der möglichen Ergebnisse dieses Marktes, ausgedrückt als Wahrscheinlichkeiten.
Entscheidungsregeln
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google's Gemini 4.0 is made available to the general public by the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes," Gemini 4.0 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public. If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify. Gemini 4.0 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 4.0 or one that is recognized as a successor to Gemini 3 similar to the progression from Gemini 2.0 to Gemini 3. Products labeled as Gemini 3.0 Flash, Gemini 2.5, or similar will not count for this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
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Gemini 4.0 released by November 30, 2026?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google's Gemini 4.0 Flash model is made available to the general public by the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes," Gemini 4.0 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public. If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify. Gemini 4.0 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 4.0 or one that is recognized as a successor to Gemini 3 similar to the progression from Gemini 2.0 to Gemini 3. Products labeled as Gemini 3.0 Flash, Gemini 2.5, or similar will not count for this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
gelesen 30. Sept., 21:22 UTC
- Polymarketdieser Markt
Gemini 4.0 released by November 30, 2026?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google's Gemini 4.0 is made available to the general public by the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes," Gemini 4.0 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public. If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify. Gemini 4.0 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 4.0 or one that is recognized as a successor to Gemini 3 similar to the progression from Gemini 2.0 to Gemini 3. Products labeled as Gemini 3.0 Flash, Gemini 2.5, or similar will not count for this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
64 Halter · 19 Kommentare · gelesen 28. Sept., 08:30 UTC
Weitere Ausprägungen dieses Ereignisses
Eine Ausprägung allein führt in die Irre; die anderen stehen daneben.| Markt | Plattform | Preis | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gemini 4.0 released by October 2, 2026? | Polymarket | 85 % No | Offen |
| Gemini 4.0 released by October 5, 2026? | Polymarket | 68 % No | Offen |
| Gemini 4.0 released by October 10, 2026? | Polymarket | 59 % No | Offen |
| Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026? | Polymarket | 100 % No | Offen |
| Gemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026? | Polymarket | 86 % Yes | Offen |
| Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026? | Polymarket | 61 % Yes | Offen |
Aktivität auf der Plattform
Von der Plattform gelesen vor 3 TagenBestes Gebot 5 % · bester Brief 6 %
Größte Halter
- Contentious-Dinnerdate81555568413718873269035910761387390518264393408216738266893752943667445100126
- qmmar81555568413718873269035910761387390518264393408216738266893752943667445100126
- notssf381555568413718873269035910761387390518264393408216738266893752943667445100126
- tnl104718464326638984317789745224017862707023515739033174165207837414956205546072
- okc35104718464326638984317789745224017862707023515739033174165207837414956205546072
Eine Momentaufnahme der Positionen, keine Erfolgsbilanz.
Letzte Trades
- BUY95 %19 $vor 3 Tagen
- SELL6 %1,3 $vor 4 Tagen
- SELL91 %2,6 $vor 4 Tagen
- BUY10 %2 $vor 6 Tagen
- BUY7 %13,8 $vor 7 Tagen
- BUY95 %4,8 $vor 7 Tagen
Diskussion auf Predxy
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Hier hat noch niemand etwas gesagt.
25 Kommentare
Aus dem eigenen Thread von Polymarket- Everestpredictions · vor 7 Stunden
Gemini 4 Argon - Pump Yes!
- meower1338 · vor 7 Stunden
hi gemini 4 argon
- Car · vor 12 Stunden
welcome to another game of insider or idiot
- Gripping-Trance-Sorbet · vor 16 Stunden
Insider?
- arrakis42 · vor 3 Tagen
Yeah that's why you have another account maxing out on No.. you want people to believe Yes so you can buy a more asymetrial No. If you were this confident why don't go all in on Yes? Why just 5 shares.
- Kelugo · vor 4 Tagen
It will be released on oct first
- George.Smiley · vor 9 Tagen
October 15 or 22nd
- hidv · vor 10 Tagen
Not just the 9to5google report.. it's in google's shareholder notes! Much more like November-December than October.
- Partial-Somewhere · vor 19 Tagen
hirefortuna already uses models not out
- arrakis42 · vor 22 Tagen
@ChefSlick Because 75% is way too high for October. This is an independent assessment site that scooped and analyzed all the available rumors online and they conclude that the model is still training and that : "Gemini 4 should launch in November or December.”. 9to5google com/2026/07/26/google-gemini-4-teases/
- arrakis42 · vor 22 Tagen
This market doesnt make any sense!
- Never-KYS · letzten Monat
I guess it's time boys
- Mikelious · vor 3 Monaten
It's coming home 17th of July lets goooo
- Mikelious · vor 3 Monaten
Gemini 3.5 pro just announced as "coming soon" on Google Deep Mind. Gemini 4 is inevitably going to release with it as per credible leakers.
- noniqque · vor 4 Monaten
we should just short google bro
- 418Imateapot · vor 5 Monaten
Yes.
- noniqque · vor 5 Monaten
are prediction markets still extremely inefficient or am I extremely dumb
- AaAbBbCcCdDdEeEFfF · vor 8 Monaten
Was spotted in Antigravity [link removed]
- AaAbBbCcCdDdEeEFfF · vor 8 Monaten
Guys they're already A/B testing Gemini 4.0 [link removed]
- George.Smiley · vor 9 Monaten
A hedge, probably won't pay out but 6 months is a long time
Stand 1. Okt., 03:14 UTC